Big Tech Debt Boom Pushes US Treasury Yields to Record Highs
Key Takeaways
- •Big Tech bond issuance including SPVs is projected to hit a record $320 billion in 2026, up $120 billion or 60% year-over-year and nearly nine times 2024 levels.
- •Corporate bonds currently yield about 200 basis points more than Treasuries, drawing capital away from government debt and contributing to rising Treasury yields.
- •Foreign central banks' share of the US Treasury market has dropped from nearly 40% in 2008 to 12% today.
- •Central banks have bought more than 4,000 tons of gold over the past four years, with gold reaching 27% of global official reserves by end of 2025 versus 22% for Treasuries.
- •Long-term Treasuries delivered roughly negative 2% annual returns over the past decade, their weakest ten-year performance in about a hundred years.
A record wave of Big Tech debt issuance is reshaping bond markets this year. Combined issuance from firms such as Meta, Amazon and NVIDIA has reached $320 billion, a volume that now represents almost 70% of total US Treasury issuance. The surge coincides with rising Treasury yields and a quiet pivot toward gold among global central banks.
Big Tech Debt Boom Reshapes Treasury Yields
Big Tech bond issuance, including special purpose vehicles (SPVs), is set to rise sharply in 2026. The Kobeissi Letter reports a $120 billion year-over-year increase, or 60% growth. That share of Treasury bond issuance is expected to reach roughly 70%, more than double the 30% recorded in 2025. The shift is notable because mega-cap technology firms historically carried minimal debt, funding operations and buybacks largely from cash flow; the turn to large-scale borrowing and SPV structures marks a change in how AI capital spending is financed.
The jump is even starker against 2024 levels: Big Tech debt issuance this year is nearly nine times larger than it was two years ago. Companies are borrowing heavily to fund artificial intelligence infrastructure, including data centers, chips and cloud capacity.
Big Tech is now competing directly with the US government for long-term debt buyers, and investors are demanding higher compensation to hold this expanding pool of corporate debt. Corporate bonds currently offer around 200 basis points more yield than Treasuries, and that gap is pulling capital away from government debt.
Treasury yields have climbed as a result. Competition for the same investor base is intensifying, and Big Tech firms show no signs of slowing their borrowing pace. The Kobeissi Letter describes the trend as a structural shift in debt markets. For bond investors, the developments to watch in coming quarters include the pace of new tech issuance and Treasury auction results, both of which will shape how much yield the government must offer to attract buyers.
Central Banks Pivot From Treasuries To Gold
Long-term Treasuries have delivered troubling returns over the past decade. The Macro Paper reports a 10-year rolling return near negative 2% annually — the weakest performance for the asset class in roughly a hundred years. Investors holding the bonds for ten years ended up losing value over that stretch.
Foreign central banks once held close to 40% of the Treasury market back in 2008. That share has since fallen to just 12%, according to Cory Klippsten of Swan.com.
Foreign holdings stopped growing even as total US debt expanded rapidly. Domestic investors and the Federal Reserve absorbed much of the difference instead.
Gold purchases by central banks accelerated during the same stretch. Buyers added more than 1,000 tons in 2022, 2023 and 2024 alone. Another 863 tons followed in 2025, marking the strongest sustained buying since 2009. Total accumulation topped 4,000 tons across four years. The buying began after major Western sanctions froze Russia's central bank reserves in 2022, a widely cited catalyst for reserve diversification.
Gold's value climbed alongside the buying spree. By the end of 2025, gold made up 27% of global official reserves, while Treasuries accounted for just 22% over the same period. At 2023 gold prices, Treasuries would still lead the comparison, 26% to 16%.
European central banks have also moved gold reserves out of US vaults this year, and Norway's sovereign wealth fund is reportedly reviewing cuts to its Treasury holdings. Both moves point toward a broader shift in reserve strategy among major economies, though neither institution has fully abandoned dollar-denominated assets.
