Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani have published a note to clients forecasting that Bitcoin will reach $125,000 by the end of 2026 and then rise to a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027.

In the firm’s base case, Bitcoin is expected to reach about $300,000 in 2029, with a longer-term target of $1 million by the end of 2033. Bernstein’s model values Bitcoin as a multiple of the marginal cost of production, and the analysts said they believe the asset continues to follow its historical four-year cycle.

The note points to the end of a 40-year period of declining interest rates as a major driver of the outlook. Bernstein also highlighted U.S. sovereign debt, which it said has reached $40 trillion, arguing that policymakers are more likely to favor currency debasement than fiscal tightening. The firm said that environment could increase demand for scarce assets such as Bitcoin, a framing that helps explain why the analysts are tying the forecast to broader macro conditions rather than to crypto-specific catalysts alone.

Bernstein also noted that around 59% of Bitcoin’s supply has not moved in the past 12 months. Bitcoin has gained 28% over the past 10 days after falling roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak. The analysts said participation from spot exchange-traded funds and corporate treasury buying may have helped cushion the decline compared with previous cycles.

A post from Wu Blockchain on X cited Bernstein’s view that Bitcoin could reach roughly $125,000 by the end of 2026, $150,000 by mid-2027, and around $300,000 in 2029 under the base case.

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) August 26, 2026

Bernstein also outlined a bull case in which institutional capital flows into Bitcoin more aggressively. Under that scenario, the firm sees Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by mid-2027 and peaking at $500,000 in 2029. The widening range between the base and bull cases underscores how much the outlook depends on the depth of institutional participation and the persistence of demand through ETF and treasury channels.

Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas said the “debasement trade is starting to replace AI mania.” He also noted that BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF and the SPDR gold ETF have returned to the top 10 most-traded ETFs, displacing some semiconductor funds. Bernstein said BlackRock has also reached $5 billion in tax-deferred Bitcoin-to-ETF swaps, suggesting that large holders have moved Bitcoin positions into the ETF structure.

Separately, Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating on Strategy but cut its price target from $450 to $350. The firm said the revision reflects its updated Bitcoin cycle outlook and accelerated equity dilution.

Strategy currently holds 840,447 Bitcoin, or roughly 4% of total supply. Bernstein said the company has about 3.9 years of cash coverage for interest and preferred dividend obligations. Even with the lower target, Bernstein said the $350 price objective still implies 176% upside from Strategy’s recent closing price of $126.83.

Bernstein added that if Strategy’s preferred stock recovers toward $100, the company could buy more Bitcoin. Strategy’s stock fell more than 2% in premarket trading, while Bitcoin futures open interest declined 2.7% to $54.80 billion over the previous 24 hours, indicating caution in the derivatives market.