Bernstein reaffirmed its overweight view on Bitcoin mining, saying the sector’s growing set of partnerships is increasingly linked to the electricity demands of AI data centers. In a Thursday research note shared with Cointelegraph, the firm cited a steady flow of AI-related agreements during July as evidence that access to power is becoming the decisive constraint for building out AI infrastructure.

According to Bernstein’s Bitcoin mining industry deal tracker, AI-related transactions recorded in July occurred at an average pace of at least one per week. Together, those deals represent more than 7.5 gigawatts of capacity, or the contracted equivalent of $150 billion across multi-year agreements. The scale matters because these arrangements are centered on access to power and compute capacity over time, rather than one-off equipment sales.

Power access drives Bernstein’s view on miners

Bernstein’s central argument is that AI data center development is increasingly limited by the availability of electricity rather than by software or hardware supply. As power becomes more difficult to secure, Bitcoin miners and other third-party computing providers, many of which already operate energy-intensive facilities, may be positioned to supply additional capacity needed by AI companies.

The firm framed the trend as a structural opportunity for the mining sector, not as a short-term market trade. Bernstein linked its favorable view to the growing number of partnerships that allow AI-focused operators to secure power and computing capacity through contracted arrangements.

The research note said miners’ third-party computing capacity remains valuable because AI expansion is being constrained more by power availability than by access to chips, servers or software. Bernstein also said political resistance in the United States could slow new data center construction, making contracted capacity sourced from miners and similar providers harder to replicate.

July deal activity highlights AI-miner theme

Public market interest in the “AI-miner” theme accelerated after Bitcoin mining companies announced major infrastructure and cloud agreements. On Monday, shares tied to AI infrastructure moves posted double-digit gains after announcements from Hut 8 and IREN.

Hut 8 disclosed a 15-year, $9.8 billion lease for its AI data center campus. IREN announced $2.8 billion in cloud services contracts with AI developers. Bernstein’s positive framing aligns with broader investor attention on miners that are converting physical infrastructure and power access into more predictable, contract-based revenue streams.

As Seeking Alpha contributor The Curious Analyst wrote in a Thursday commentary, IREN appears to be turning an infrastructure advantage into “contracted and more predictable revenue,” while identifying execution risk as the main potential downside. That distinction is important for the sector: long-term contracts can improve revenue visibility, but companies still need to deliver infrastructure, power and computing services on schedule.

Other publicly traded miners also expanded their AI-related plans in July. MARA Holdings said earlier in the month that it planned to acquire a Texas site with up to 2 gigawatts of capacity to support its AI and digital infrastructure business. TeraWulf signed a 20-year data center lease with AI startup Anthropic, which the company said could generate roughly $19 billion in contract revenue. Bitdeer has also expanded into AI cloud services and high-performance computing.

Bernstein’s ratings, as reported in the research note shared with Cointelegraph, include an outperform stance on all of the stocks it discussed except MARA, which it rates as market perform. Sector trading reflected the same narrative, with the CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI) higher ahead of the Nasdaq open and several miner stocks also up in premarket activity.

Policy resistance may affect new data center construction

Bernstein also connected the alignment between AI companies and miners to a policy backdrop that could complicate new data center development. The firm said bipartisan political pushback is increasingly influencing the timing and feasibility of additional facilities, particularly as communities raise concerns about local effects such as water use and electricity costs.

In Texas, the Houston Chronicle reported that a proposal backed by Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico would strengthen local approval processes and repeal certain tax breaks for AI data centers. In Oregon, US Senator Ron Wyden has publicly raised concerns about water scarcity during drought conditions. Wyden has argued that large data centers can consume up to 5 million gallons of water per day and has asked operators to explain how they would reduce groundwater withdrawals to protect local supplies.

At the federal level, the Trump administration published a “Ratepayer Protection Pledge” intended to expand AI infrastructure without raising electricity bills for households and small businesses. Separately, state governors released plans to expand the grid to meet rapidly growing AI data center demand, while emphasizing that new facilities should pay for the costs they create rather than shifting those costs to existing residential and small business customers.

Bernstein’s analysis suggests that if political and infrastructure constraints delay new capacity, entities that already have access to power and can secure computing demand through multi-year contracts may become more important to AI infrastructure buildouts.

Contracting pace remains a key sector marker

With Bernstein pointing to both July deal volume and policy headwinds, the next signal for the sector is whether miners can maintain the pace of AI-linked contracting and convert those agreements into longer-term revenue visibility. That process is occurring as regulators and local communities continue to scrutinize data center construction and its effects on power grids, water resources and local costs.