The Bank of Korea is widely expected to raise its 2026 growth forecast for the South Korean economy above 3 percent, economists said Sunday, pointing to stronger-than-expected semiconductor exports and a recovery in domestic demand.

According to a recent Yonhap News Agency survey of six economic analysts, respondents expect the central bank to lift its growth outlook for this year from the current 2.6 percent to as high as 3.4 percent. The BOK last set its official projections in May, and such revisions typically accompany its scheduled rate-setting meetings, making the outlook a key reference point for the central bank's monetary policy decisions.

"Given the stronger-than-expected exports led by semiconductors, increased government expenditure driven by higher tax revenues and a rebound in domestic demand, the country is likely to achieve economic growth of around 3 percent this year," said Ahn Jae-kyun, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities Co., who put this year's growth outlook at 3.2 percent.

Other respondents offered similar projections of 3.1 to 3.2 percent, with the highest estimate coming from Nomura Securities, which projected 3.4 percent annual economic growth.

"The BOK could take into consideration the semiconductor boom and the government's expansionary fiscal policy. We expect the central bank to sharply raise the growth forecasts for this year and next year," said Park Jeong-woo, an economist at Nomura.

For next year, the analysts' growth outlooks ranged between 2.2 percent and 2.8 percent, the survey showed.

Most respondents were positive that the semiconductor supercycle will continue to provide upward momentum for South Korea's economy, citing a supply-and-demand mismatch in the global semiconductor market. Semiconductors are the country's single largest export item, regularly accounting for roughly a fifth of total overseas shipments, and the industry is anchored by Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc., the world's two largest memory chipmakers — giving chip demand outsized weight in the national growth and trade figures.

"While the demand for artificial intelligence inference is growing exponentially, the pace of semiconductor supply is relatively slow. A supply crunch is likely to continue longer, beyond 2027," Park said.

Joo Won, deputy director of economic research at Hyundai Research Institute, offered a more cautionary view, saying the semiconductor supercycle could peak out sooner than expected and noting that August chip exports dropped from a month earlier.

"The semiconductor market will remain strong until around the end of this year to the early half of next year," Joo said.

Most of the experts agreed the central bank could sharply raise its estimate for South Korea's current account surplus from the $250 billion announced in May. They noted that the country's account surplus for the first half of 2026 has already topped last year's annual tally of $191 billion, which was the highest on record.

On consumer prices, experts widely expect the BOK to maintain its inflation rate estimate of 2.7 percent announced in May, citing inflationary pressures from rising oil prices and the high won-dollar exchange rate. The next concrete readings on the export-led outlook will be the central bank's revised projections and the monthly customs data on chip shipments that analysts such as Joo are tracking. (Yonhap)