Bitcoin fell to $79,000 over the weekend, and this week brings rate decisions from both the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan — meetings that can move the yen and, with it, the crowded funding trades built on it. Against that backdrop, Duke Waldrop, Head of Asia Markets at UTXO Management, joined Grace Remington and Sean Hagan in a discussion on Bitcoin Magazine's YouTube channel to explain why a "liquidity shock" from the Bank of Japan could reach Bitcoin first.

The Yen Carry Trade and Bitcoin's Role as the Exit

Waldrop's core argument centers on the yen carry trade — the long-standing strategy of borrowing cheaply in yen to fund higher-yielding positions elsewhere. Macro funds carrying yen-denominated liabilities can become forced sellers when the currency reprices, and Bitcoin's 24/7 liquidity is where they find the exit. If the Bank of Japan surprises markets with its decision, he said, the first sellers would be overleveraged macro funds. The concern has a recent precedent: in August 2024, a sharp yen rally after a Bank of Japan rate hike was followed by a global selloff in which Bitcoin briefly fell below $50,000, an episode widely linked by analysts to carry trade unwinds. He also described how Asian investors are learning the Treasury playbook — the corporate bitcoin balance-sheet strategy pioneered by U.S. public companies.

Metaplanet Trades Below the Value of Its Bitcoin

Waldrop broke down why Metaplanet, a Tokyo-listed bitcoin treasury company, is trading below the value of its own Bitcoin holdings — a discount to the net asset value of its coins that he framed through the metric of bitcoin per share. He also covered Metaplanet's Nasdaq route through Super League and the second liquidity pool it creates, and argued that Asia remains "way behind" on Bitcoin preferreds.

MSCI Removal Would Change "Nothing Fundamental"

On the possibility of Metaplanet's removal from MSCI indexes on November 30, Waldrop argued the change would alter nothing fundamental about the thesis. Index reviews draw attention because passive funds tracking MSCI benchmarks hold their constituents, so membership changes can shift trading flows. His outlook, he said, rests on the execution of Metaplanet's Tokyo team.

Additional topics in the discussion included balance sheet caps, delisting and Moon Inc., as well as Thailand, Astra's cash-flow model, Capital Group's 11%, and "The Moon, a Million." With both rate decisions due this week and the MSCI review set for November 30, the calendar supplies the near-term markers for readers to watch.

Ownership and Disclosures

Both UTXO Management and BTC Inc., the producer of BMTV, are owned by Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA).

The video is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and investments in digital assets involve significant risk and may result in loss of capital.

The views and opinions expressed in the show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing in the show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.

This article first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Patrick Green.