Is There a Balkan Fertility Paradox?
Key Takeaways
- •As of 2024, Montenegro recorded Europe's highest total fertility rate at 1.80, followed by Bulgaria and Moldova at 1.73, Serbia at 1.64, and France at 1.61.
- •Balkan fertility rates began recovering around 2010 after the region experienced some of Europe's lowest rates during the post-Soviet period.
- •Culturally and economically similar countries including Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, and the Baltic states have not seen a comparable fertility rebound.
- •Every Balkan nation's fertility rate remains below the replacement level of approximately 2.1 children per woman, meaning long-term population decline is likely without immigration.
- •Demographers have not reached a consensus explanation for the Balkan fertility recovery despite examining factors such as family policy, housing costs, labor markets, and cultural attitudes.
The Balkans may be the only region in the world besides Central Asia where fertility rates have risen between 2015 and 2026.
As of 2024, the four highest total fertility rates (TFR) in Europe were all recorded in the Balkans: Montenegro (1.80), Bulgaria (1.73), Moldova (1.73), and Serbia (1.64). France, long the outlier among Western European nations with relatively high fertility, ranked next at 1.61. All of these figures remain below the replacement level of approximately 2.1 children per woman, meaning even the region's leaders face long-term population decline absent immigration.
Several other Balkan countries — including Slovenia, Croatia, Kosovo, Bosnia, and Slovakia — posted rates of approximately 1.50, comparable to the highest non-Gallic TFRs in Western Europe, such as the United Kingdom (1.55) and Ireland (1.47).
Even the lowest-fertility Balkan nations — Macedonia, Romania, Albania, and Hungary — recorded rates of roughly 1.35 to 1.40. While these figures would be considered on the lower end for Western Europe, they remain notably higher than those found across Southern Europe — where Italy and Spain hover near 1.2 — and most of the former Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union.
The trend marks a significant reversal. During the post-Soviet demographic nadir, the Balkans experienced some of the lowest fertility rates in Europe. Rates began to recover around 2010 and have continued to rise slowly since.
Notably, countries with broadly similar cultural and economic profiles — Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, and the Baltic states — have seen no comparable increase.
Writing to Marginal Revolution, Thomas Hanes observed that conventional explanations appear insufficient. The region's reputation for traditional gender norms — Balkan men being described as historically unhelpful husbands and fathers — does not fit the profile typically associated with fertility rebounds. Nor is the Balkans measurably more religious than neighboring countries such as Poland, Italy, or Belarus, which have not experienced a similar recovery.
The data raises the question: what accounts for this divergence? Demographers have studied numerous potential drivers of fertility recovery — including family policy generosity, housing costs, labor-market conditions, and cultural attitudes — without arriving at a consensus explanation that fits the Balkan case.
Source: Marginal Revolution
