Avalanche (AVAX), the native token of the Layer-1 blockchain platform built for decentralized applications and enterprise use cases, is showing early signs of a short-term breakout above its descending channel, with potential targets of $7.20–$8.00 if buyers can sustain current momentum. However, the weekly trend remains bearish, and a confirmed move above $10.20 would be needed to validate a broader long-term reversal.

AVAX price hovered near $6.65 after climbing more than 3% this week, recovering from its recent low around $6.10. The move has improved short-term sentiment, with buyers reclaiming momentum. AVAX, like other major Layer-1 tokens, has been under sustained pressure as the broader crypto market grapples with macroeconomic uncertainty and shifting risk appetite. However, the weekly trend remains bearish, setting up a battle between short-term optimism and long-term resistance.

Short-Term Price Analysis: Bulls Attempt a Trend Reversal

The 4-hour chart has shifted in favor of buyers after AVAX broke above its descending channel, ending weeks of lower highs and lower lows. The breakout was accompanied by a sharp increase in volume, indicating fresh buying interest rather than a low-conviction move.

The Supertrend indicator has flipped bullish, reinforcing the change in short-term momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD has completed a bullish crossover, with the histogram expanding into positive territory, suggesting upside momentum is accelerating.

Despite the breakout, AVAX is now testing the channel's upper boundary as resistance near $6.70–$6.80. A successful close above this region could trigger an extension toward $7.20, while sustained buying pressure may expose the next resistance around $8.00. Failure to hold above the breakout zone, however, would risk a pullback toward $6.30, where the previous channel resistance could act as new support.

Long-Term Price Analysis: Weekly Trend Still Needs Confirmation

While the lower timeframe has improved, the weekly chart presents a more cautious outlook. AVAX continues to trade inside a long-term descending channel that has defined its trend since late 2025, indicating the broader market structure remains bearish.

The RSI remains below 40, showing that long-term momentum is still weak despite stabilizing near recent lows. At the same time, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains in negative territory, suggesting capital inflows have yet to return in a meaningful way. These indicators imply that institutional demand is still limited on the higher timeframe — a pattern seen across several Layer-1 tokens as network activity and total value locked across the DeFi ecosystem have yet to recover to prior cycle levels.

For the weekly outlook to improve, AVAX must first reclaim the upper boundary of the descending channel before challenging the $10.20 resistance level. A decisive breakout above this area would mark the first meaningful shift in long-term structure and open the door toward $16.80 over the coming months. Until then, the weekly trend continues to favor caution despite the improving short-term picture.

Can Avalanche Sustain Its Short-Term Breakout?

The 4-hour chart suggests AVAX is attempting to build a recovery, but the weekly chart reminds traders that the broader downtrend remains intact. In the near term, maintaining price above $6.30 would keep the breakout structure valid and improve the chances of a move toward $7.20–$8.00.

However, a genuine long-term trend reversal requires much more than a short-term breakout. Bulls must reclaim the weekly channel and overcome $10.20 before the market can confidently shift from recovery to a sustained bullish trend. Key factors to monitor include broader crypto market direction, on-chain activity on the Avalanche network, and whether CMF and RSI on the weekly timeframe begin shifting out of negative territory. Until then, the current rally should be viewed as an early sign of strength rather than confirmation that the broader downtrend has ended.