Australian Shares Climb as Blockbuster Jobs Report Fuels RBA Rate Hike Bets
Key Takeaways
- •Australia added 76,000 jobs in June, well above the forecast of 15,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.4 per cent.
- •The market-implied probability of an RBA rate hike in August rose to approximately 32 per cent, with a further increase almost fully priced in by year-end.
- •Materials led the broader market higher, with James Hardie surging 6.8 per cent after raising its quarterly sales guidance and major miners gaining on stronger commodity prices.
- •Brent crude climbed to nearly US$96 a barrel following attacks on Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea, lifting energy stocks including Woodside Energy and Karoon Energy.
- •Technology was the weakest sector after disappointing Alphabet earnings dampened global tech sentiment, with WiseTech Global falling 4.6 per cent and Xero declining 4 per cent.

The Australian share market is trading higher on Thursday of Week 30, though earlier gains have been tempered after a stronger-than-expected jobs report increased speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia could raise interest rates again at its August board meeting.
The benchmark index is up 0.7 per cent. The standout development is the latest labour market data, which revealed Australia added 76,000 jobs in June — far surpassing forecasts of 15,000 — while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.4 per cent. The result underscores the continued resilience of the Australian labour market, which has remained tight even as the RBA has lifted its cash rate target to a 12-year high of 4.35 per cent during the current tightening cycle.
The robust employment figures pushed the Australian dollar above US 70 cents and prompted markets to raise the probability of an August rate hike to approximately 32 per cent, with a further increase now almost fully priced in by year-end. Persistent labour market strength complicates the RBA's balancing act between cooling inflation, which sat at 4.0 per cent in the May quarter, and avoiding unnecessary damage to employment growth.
Materials are leading the broader market higher. James Hardie jumped 6.8 per cent after upgrading its quarterly sales guidance. Mining stocks also strengthened on the back of firmer commodity prices, with BHP gaining 1.3 per cent, Fortescue rising 1.6 per cent, and Evolution Mining climbing 3.1 per cent as gold traded around US$4,116 an ounce and iron ore futures advanced 1.7 per cent.
Energy stocks advanced as oil prices continued their upward trajectory. Brent crude rose to nearly US$96 a barrel following attacks on Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea, part of a prolonged pattern of disruptions to shipping through the region that has elevated geopolitical risk premia in crude markets. Woodside Energy added 0.8 per cent, while Karoon Energy climbed 3.7 per cent after reporting June-quarter sales revenue of US$116.4 million from production of 1.08 million barrels of oil equivalent.
The major banks outperformed, with National Australia Bank rising 1.6 per cent, Commonwealth Bank and Westpac each adding 1.5 per cent, and ANZ gaining 1.1 per cent. Bank stocks are often sensitive to interest rate expectations, as higher rates can support net interest margins.
Technology was the weakest sector after disappointing earnings from Google parent Alphabet dampened global tech sentiment overnight. WiseTech Global fell 4.6 per cent, Xero declined 4 per cent, and TechnologyOne lost 2.3 per cent.
In individual company news, Sandfire Resources rallied 4.3 per cent after reporting record quarterly revenue, stronger copper-equivalent production, and a net cash position of $353 million. Generation Development Group surged 32 per cent after delivering record quarterly sales and reporting that funds under management grew 36 per cent over the financial year to $46.4 billion.