NewsMacroUpcoming Inflation Reports May Decide Federal Reserve's Next Rate Move, Keeping Wall Street on Edge

Upcoming Inflation Reports May Decide Federal Reserve's Next Rate Move, Keeping Wall Street on Edge

Author: Fortune Crypto·

Key Takeaways

  • •The U.S. will release its August Producer Price Index on Thursday and the Consumer Price Index on Friday.
  • •Inflation remains above 3% and is rising faster than wage growth, pressuring households and businesses.
  • •The U.S. war with Iran has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, raising gasoline and shipped-goods prices.
  • •Tariff conflicts threaten further price increases as businesses gradually pass added costs on to consumers.
  • •The Fed has held its benchmark rate steady, but Wall Street expects at least one rate hike this year as the central bank targets 2% inflation.
Upcoming Inflation Reports May Decide Federal Reserve's Next Rate Move, Keeping Wall Street on Edge

Wall Street is set to receive several important updates on inflation this week, releases that could shape the Federal Reserve's next decision on interest rates.

On Thursday, the United States will publish its August report on wholesale-level inflation, known as the Producer Price Index, or PPI. The PPI provides details on prices paid by businesses before those costs are passed along to consumers. Because it captures cost pressures further up the supply chain, the PPI is often watched as an early signal of where consumer-level inflation may be headed in the months ahead.

On Friday, the U.S. will release its more widely followed Consumer Price Index for August. The CPI tracks price changes for specific categories such as grocery items, furniture, and clothing, as well as price changes for services ranging from car maintenance to travel and restaurant dining. The CPI is the most closely watched inflation gauge by both the Fed and financial markets, and readings that come in above or below expectations have historically triggered sharp moves in stocks, bonds, and currency trading in the minutes after release.

Together, the reports will give Wall Street and the Federal Reserve a clearer picture of the direction of inflation. The inflation rate remains above 3% and continues to squeeze households and businesses. Inflation is also outpacing wage growth, adding further strain on households.

Rising energy prices driven by the U.S. war with Iran have been fueling inflation. Shipping has been stifled in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil supply flowed before the war. That disruption has pushed prices higher for gasoline and shipped goods.

Ongoing tariff conflicts between the United States and most of the world also threaten to send prices higher. Tariff-driven cost increases typically show up gradually, as importers and manufacturers decide how much of the added cost to pass on to consumers, which can make inflation harder to slow even when the Fed keeps policy tight.

The Federal Reserve has been holding its benchmark interest rate steady, but Wall Street expects the central bank to raise the rate at least once this year in an effort to fight inflation. The Fed's stated goal is to cool inflation to a rate of 2%. Rate decisions ripple well beyond financial markets: changes in the benchmark rate influence borrowing costs for mortgages, credit cards, car loans, and business financing, which is one reason the inflation data draws attention far beyond trading desks.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com.