NewsMacroLarry Kudlow: Trump's Economic Boom Is 'the Greatest Story Never Told'

Larry Kudlow: Trump's Economic Boom Is 'the Greatest Story Never Told'

Author: Fox Business Markets·

Key Takeaways

  • August payrolls rose 162,000, roughly three times the Wall Street consensus, and exceeded 217,000 including upward revisions to June and July.
  • Since Trump took office, private-sector jobs have increased by more than a million while federal jobs have fallen by over 300,000 amid workforce-reduction efforts.
  • The employment-to-population ratio rose to 59.1 percent from 58.9 percent, and the wage income proxy grew 4.3 percent, outpacing the consumer price index.
  • Kudlow cited sustained ISM manufacturing and services gains and double-digit durable goods growth, and credited policies like bonus depreciation, deregulation, and tax-free tips and overtime.
  • Economists remain divided on how much credit individual policies deserve, given factors such as interest rates, global demand, and inherited conditions.
Larry Kudlow: Trump's Economic Boom Is 'the Greatest Story Never Told'

When the August jobs report arrived, the press had braced for a weak number. Instead, payrolls rose by 162,000 — roughly three times the Wall Street consensus. It was a reminder that the monthly jobs report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, routinely moves markets and shapes the political narrative around the economy, and that consensus forecasts — along with prior-month figures — are frequently revised as more complete data comes in. Kudlow argued that most of Wall Street and the mainstream press have also overlooked eight consecutive monthly increases in the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, fifteen straight monthly gains in the ISM services index, and substantial growth in industrial production and consumer spending. The ISM indices are closely watched diffusion measures based on purchasing managers' surveys, where readings above 50 signal expansion; sustained streaks of increases are typically read as evidence of gathering momentum in the broader economy.

"President Trump's economic boom has become the greatest story never told, but the story is factual," Kudlow said, adding that if the GOP hopes to hold on to Congress in the midterms, it must get that story out. Midterm elections historically pose a stiff challenge for the party holding the White House, which makes the public's perception of the economy a central political battleground in the run-up to November. Former White House counselor Kellyanne Conway, speaking with Kudlow, put it this way: "They've got the money, the message, they need a better sales pitch and they've got great messengers like you and Secretary Bessent and obviously President Trump, most of all."

Taking a closer look at the jobs figures: including 55,000 in upward revisions to June and July, the actual job gain in August exceeded 217,000. Since President Trump took office, private-sector jobs have increased by more than a million, while federal jobs have fallen by more than 300,000 — a shift Kudlow characterized as a free-enterprise restructuring of the economy and an end to what he described as President Biden's big-government socialism. The decline in federal employment tracks with the administration's efforts, led in part by the Department of Government Efficiency, to shrink the federal workforce.

The employment-to-population ratio, which Kudlow called perhaps the best jobs indicator, rose to 59.1 percent from 58.9 percent. Economists often track this ratio because, unlike the headline unemployment rate, it is not affected by whether discouraged workers are counted as being in the labor force. Manufacturing, construction, and goods-producing employment continue to climb. On wages, private-sector wage gains combined with hours worked produced a 4.3 percent increase in the wage income proxy, which Kudlow noted is higher than the temporarily inflated consumer price index — a comparison that matters for household living standards, since wage gains outpacing inflation translate into real income growth.

According to Kudlow, none of this should surprise analysts who have been tracking the numbers honestly. Productivity, corporate profits, stocks, consumer activity, and the hard-goods industry are all booming, he said, with durable goods — the heart of manufacturing — rising at double-digit rates, a pattern not seen in decades. It is worth noting that Kudlow served as director of the National Economic Council during Trump's first term and now hosts a Fox Business program, positioning from which he has been a consistent advocate of the president's economic agenda.

Can President Trump take credit? Kudlow's answer: absolutely. He pointed to 100 percent immediate depreciation, the "drill, baby, drill" energy agenda, deregulation, tax-free overtime, and tax-free tips as policies that are working — "if only the press would report it." Full-year bonus depreciation allows businesses to immediately deduct the cost of qualifying equipment investments, a provision tax analysts credit with encouraging capital spending. How much credit any single policy deserves for the broader numbers, however, remains a matter of debate among economists, with factors such as interest rates, global demand, and inherited conditions all playing a role.