Australian shares came under modest pressure today, as hotter inflation pushed money markets closer to pricing in another interest rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Investors are now putting a roughly 50 per cent probability on a September rate hike, while a move in November is almost fully priced.

The S&P/ASX 200 index was down 0.7 per cent, despite a fresh batch of company results helping to drive some of the biggest moves across the market. The divergence — a softer index alongside outsized single-stock swings — is a familiar feature of the middle of the Australian reporting season, when the bulk of the market's June-ending companies hand down full-year results.

Rate repricing weighs on retailers

The shift in rate expectations is weighing particularly heavily on consumer-facing stocks, with electronics retailer JB Hi-Fi down 3 per cent and Harvey Norman off 1 per cent. Retailers are typically among the most rate-sensitive companies on the index, as higher borrowing costs feed into the mortgage repayments and household budgets that underpin consumer spending. Conglomerate Wesfarmers was also 1.3 per cent lower after reporting a 1.8 per cent decline in statutory profit to $2.87 billion, even as earnings strengthened across its Bunnings and Kmart businesses.

Qantas profit slumps on fuel costs

In the transport sector, Qantas was in sharp focus after Australia's flag carrier posted underlying profit before tax of just over $2 billion for FY26, down 14 per cent. The carrier blamed a massive spike in fuel costs and the Iran war for the slump in profit, and said it expects higher fares and capacity changes will help absorb a projected $3.6 billion fuel bill, with jet fuel among the largest single input costs for any airline. Even so, the stock was still trading more than 4 per cent higher, reinforcing that the results were broadly in line with expectations.

IGO back in the black

Miner IGO returned to profit for FY26, boosted by stronger earnings from the Greenbushes lithium operation, one of the world's largest hard-rock lithium mines, held through its Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia joint venture. The company's share of profit from Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia and cash generation from the Nova nickel-copper operation in Western Australia were the primary drivers of the improvement, and shares were up 2.6 per cent intraday.

Ramsay leads the gainers

Ramsay Health Care, Australia's largest private hospital operator, was one of the day's strongest performers, with shares jumping 14.7 per cent after its FY26 earnings beat expectations. Underlying EBITDA reached $2.34 billion, up 9 per cent, while underlying profit came in at $364 million.

Pharmaceutical company Mayne Pharma headed in the opposite direction, with net profit plunging 90 per cent to $31.2 million. Revenue dropped 6 per cent to $383 million, with the company pointing to disruption surrounding Cosette's takeover bid.

Karoon earnings slide

Oil and gas producer Karoon Energy reported a sharp decline in first-half earnings, with net profit falling 62 per cent and revenue dropping 21 per cent. The company said production disruptions had affected its Brazilian and US operations, but it expects a stronger second half after completing investment work at Bauna, its flagship oil field offshore Brazil.

With rate expectations firmly back in focus and another heavy slate of corporate results still to come, earnings season is continuing to drive pronounced movement across the market.