The S&P/ASX 200 index is forecast to open lower, tracking overnight declines on Wall Street as oil prices continued their upward trend.

Investors are also digesting the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision yesterday to hold the cash rate at 4.35%, keeping it in restrictive territory as policymakers balance still-elevated inflation against signs of slowing household spending.

Wall Street Declines as US-Iran Peace Talks Fade

US equities fell again as prospects for US-Iran peace negotiations receded. Reuters reported that hopes for a peace deal are fading after US President Donald Trump called on Iran to pay compensation for people killed in wars, attacks, and protests.

Brent crude was up 1.26% this morning to US$83.161 a barrel. Rising oil prices feed directly into transport and manufacturing costs, which can delay the return of inflation to central bank targets. Many US investors are awaiting inflation data due later today, with sustained oil price increases potentially affecting those key figures.

Commodities and Forex

In forex, the Australian dollar is buying US$0.705.

Commodity movements, all denominated in US dollars:

• Iron Ore: up 0.56% to $95.08 per tonne
• Brent Crude: up 1.26% to $83.161 per barrel
• Gold: $4,370.26 per ounce
• US natural gas futures: down 1.64% to $2.7481 per MMBtu

CBA Reports Strong FY26 Results

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), the country's largest lender by market capitalisation, unveiled a robust FY26 result, with cash net profit after tax rising 7% to $11 billion. Pre-provision profit increased 6% to $16.5 billion, while return on equity rose 14%.

Operating income grew 6%, supported by customer and volume growth alongside a broadly stable underlying net interest margin.

However, in its outlook forecasts, the bank cautioned that growth is slowing, with higher interest rates and inflation placing uneven pressure on household incomes and economic activity. The cautionary tone from the nation's biggest mortgage lender underscores broader concerns about the consumer sector.

EnergyQuest Report: WA Gas Market Facing Supply Shortfalls

A new report by consultancy EnergyQuest suggests that Western Australia's domestic gas market may return to a structure resembling a decade ago, where LNG projects supplied a higher proportion of export volumes to the domestic market.

Western Australia operates under a domestic gas reservation policy that requires LNG exporters to make 15% of gas available to the local market, but the report signals that existing domestic-only fields are depleting faster than new supply can replace them.

"The West Coast Gas Outlook 2026 shows that increasing and sustained demand combined with declining supply from domestic only gas projects create growing potential supply shortfalls," said Matt Paull, head of consulting.

"On the current trajectory, WA's future gas market will start to look like it was a decade ago. That future is not far off and, without further supply development, we expect more than 15% of LNG export volumes will need to be supplied to the domestic market in the 2030s," Mr Paull said.

ASX Company Updates

Technology:

• Metallium (ASX:MTM) has expanded its commercial pipeline with positive FJH testing results across a range of metals.
• Sprintex (ASX:SIX) announced it is targeting a US$4 billion market through a new China partnership.

Resources:

• Black Canyon (ASX:BCA) has extended known manganese mineralisation at Wandanya in Western Australia by 400 metres to the south.
• Patronus Resources (ASX:PTN) has intersected shallow gold at Golden Dyke in the Northern Territory.