Shares of ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) moved higher on Wednesday, October 14, after the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker raised its 2026 sales forecast for the third time this year.

The company's American depositary receipts traded at $1,744.67 in premarket trading, up 1.6%, while the Amsterdam listing gained 1.75% to €1,536. ASML, headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, is the leading supplier of lithography systems used to manufacture advanced semiconductors. Because its machines print the circuit patterns that every advanced chip depends on, its order book is often read as an early indicator of chipmakers' capital spending plans.

Third Guidance Increase This Year

ASML now expects 2026 net sales of €44 billion to €45 billion, up from its previous range of €43 billion to €45 billion. The company also expects a full-year gross margin of around 56%.

Third-quarter net sales came in at €11.66 billion, with net income of €4.96 billion. Analysts had expected net income of €4.13 billion on revenue of €11.63 billion.

$ASML Q3'26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS 🔹 Net Sales: €11,662M (Est. €11.56B) 🟢 🔹 EPS: €12.95 (Est. €10.60) 🟢 🔹 Gross Margin: 57.5% (Est. 54.8%) 🟢 🔹 Net Income: €5.0B (Est. €4.06B) 🟢 FY26 Guide: 🔹 Net Sales: €44B-€45B (Est. €43.73B) 🟢 🔹 Gross Margin: ~56% (Est.… pic.twitter.com/kcG3HBjl1r

— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) October 14, 2026

Demand Looks Strong Into 2029

Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet said customers continue to raise their equipment demand forecasts, pointing to the size and length of AI-related investments. Some customers now want to place orders for 2029 and even 2030 — a long runway for a machine maker. The AI infrastructure buildout runs on leading-edge chips that require the most advanced lithography, and chipmakers book such tools years ahead as they map out capacity.

Fouquet said planned supply for 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet demand. ASML is also looking at ways to go beyond its planned 30% capacity increase in 2028.

The results arrived at a useful time for chip stocks. The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell for a fifth straight day on Tuesday and is down close to 5% in October.

Analyst reactions were mixed. Jefferies said the increases for 2027 and 2028 were broadly expected, and the firm sees semiconductor sector multiples contracting further. BofA analyst Didier Scemama, however, sees room for price increases. He estimates that a 5% rise in average selling prices could lift earnings-per-share gains to around 10%. Scemama holds a Buy rating and a $2,915 price target on the ADRs, which traded around $1,703 on Tuesday.

China Rules Stay in Focus

ASML cannot export its most advanced tools — extreme ultraviolet (EUV) systems — to China. It expects China to make up about 20% of 2026 sales, though it made a similar forecast for 2025 and ended up near one third. That between forecast and outcome has made China one of the less predictable variables in ASML's planning.

Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen said the company opposes the proposed Match Act in Congress. He called it a bad idea and said it would speed up China's own technology work. The bill would bar DUV lithography sales to China, along with servicing of machines already installed there. China has made up roughly 70% of ASML's DUV immersion unit sales by volume in recent years.

Fourth-Quarter Outlook

Third-quarter gross margin rose to 57.5% from 54%, and net income climbed from €2.92 billion in the prior quarter. For the fourth quarter, ASML expects net sales of €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion and a gross margin of around 57%. That range implies a further sequential step-up in sales from the third quarter's €11.66 billion.

Source: CoinCentral