Asian markets showed limited direction on Friday, 4 September 2026, as traders positioned themselves ahead of the US non-farm payrolls report, due at 8:30am US Eastern time. The jobs print is the last major US data release before the Federal Reserve's next policy meeting, and it lands a day after Fed Governor Christopher Waller moved rate expectations sharply by tamping down bets on further hikes — a shift that sent US stocks rocketing higher overnight. Oil traded steadily near its recent highs, with no significant new developments out of the Middle East to shift the tone, while gold tracked sideways around $4,475 an ounce after a volatile week that has left the metal sensitive to the payrolls outcome.

On the central bank front, Nomura said the Bank of Japan could hike rates at three consecutive meetings through December in an extreme scenario, should renewed yen weakness push the currency back toward 160 per dollar. The bank's head of FX strategy Japan called a quarter-point hike this month "reasonable" regardless. The rate path matters beyond Japan: JPMorgan has flagged a $103 billion yen short position among investors, an unwind of which could push USD/JPY toward 142. In New Zealand, RBNZ Assistant Governor Karen Silk signalled that the central bank's next rate increase is more likely to land in December than October. Separate comments from fellow Monetary Policy Committee member Carl Hansen largely restated guidance the RBNZ had already communicated, adding little new to the picture.

Currency markets were similarly quiet. NZD/USD recovered back above the 0.5900 level following its mid-week decline, while USD/JPY regained the 156 handle after Thursday's drop. USD/JPY was subsequently lifted toward 156.40 in a further retracement of Thursday's fall. In China, the People's Bank of China set its USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7787, notably firmer than the 6.7093 estimate — a fix well away from market expectations that typically draws attention as a signal of the authority's tolerance for currency strength or weakness.

Regional equities took their cue from Wall Street's overnight gains, with Japan's Nikkei up around 1% and South Korea's Kospi higher by 1.3%. The backdrop for Japanese equities remains mixed, however, with household spending recently reported at its worst in more than 18 months — a soft patch that complicates the case for rapid policy normalisation even as the yen sits near multi-decade weakness.

Top stories from the session:

• RBNZ signals December, not October, for its next rate hike
• Diesel crunch, hot ISM data point to entrenched inflation risk: gold, equity risks
• JPMorgan flags a $103 bn yen short position, unwind could push USD/JPY to 142
• Gold's week of whiplash sets up a payrolls-driven Friday
• PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate for today at 6.7787 (vs. estimate at 6.7093)
• Central bankers speak, currencies don't always react: here's why that matters
• Household spending in Japan is the worst in more than 18 months
• The magazine cover "curse": less about magic, more about who's already bought in
• How Waller moved the Fed rate-hike odds by 12 points in minutes: a look inside CME FedWatch
• Catch-up: Waller sent stocks rocketing higher in the US
• investingLive Americas market news wrap: Waller tamps down rate hike bets
• ICYMI: Oman said to reject Iran's plan to jointly charge fees on ships in Hormuz
• Citi lifts 3Q26 Brent forecast to $86 but sees prices sliding to $65 by 2027