BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has released a new essay titled "Yen-quake," in which he argues that U.S. policymakers may pursue a weaker dollar as part of a broader shift in global currency dynamics. Hayes, who served as CEO of BitMEX before stepping down in 2022 and has built a reputation for macro-driven crypto commentary, frames his thesis around the interplay between U.S. Treasury policy and the Japanese yen.

According to Hayes, the U.S. Treasury could favor policies designed to weaken the dollar while simultaneously helping to strengthen the Japanese yen. While dollar policy is formally set by the Treasury rather than the Federal Reserve, such coordination would be unusual; the last major deliberate effort to depreciate the dollar was the 1985 Plaza Accord, when the U.S. and major allies agreed to push the greenback lower. Hayes contends that a similar move today would increase global liquidity and create a more supportive environment for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The essay reflects Hayes' personal macroeconomic outlook rather than an official policy forecast.

Liquidity as a Tailwind for Bitcoin

In "Yen-quake," Hayes posits that the increased liquidity resulting from a weaker dollar could serve as a tailwind for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Historically, periods of expanding liquidity—such as the Federal Reserve's post-2020 asset purchases—have often coincided with stronger performance in risk assets, though actual market outcomes depend on a wide range of macroeconomic and financial factors.

Hayes suggests that if liquidity conditions improve, Bitcoin and other digital assets could benefit from renewed investor demand. His thesis contributes to the ongoing debate over how currency policy and central bank actions influence cryptocurrency markets, particularly as Japan remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries and the Bank of Japan's policy shifts continue to ripple through global bond and currency markets.

NOW: Arthur Hayes published a new essay, "Yen-quake," arguing the Treasury will engineer a weaker dollar to strengthen the yen. The resulting liquidity surge will send Bitcoin and crypto higher. pic.twitter.com/9KZh5sjaGd

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) August 11, 2026

What to Watch Going Forward

Hayes' "Yen-quake" thesis underscores the significance of macroeconomic trends in shaping cryptocurrency markets. Market participants are expected to continue monitoring U.S. Treasury policy, Federal Reserve decisions, inflation data, and global liquidity conditions to assess whether his outlook begins to materialize.

While the essay outlines a bullish scenario for Bitcoin and crypto, the broader market will likely look for supporting economic developments before drawing firm conclusions.