Arthur Hayes is loading up on crypto risk ahead of Anthropic's Nasdaq debut next week, but he is keeping his positions small to medium so he can close them quickly if needed.

The co-founder of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX and chief investment officer of crypto investment firm Maelstrom made the call in a post on X on Nov. 5 — the same day he published an essay declaring that Maelstrom would sit out the wave of AI mega listings.

BitMEX co-founder turns 'mini-bulled up' before listing week

"The Anthropic IPO is going to rip. I'm loading up on crypto risk between now and next week's listing date," Hayes wrote on X on Thursday. "Keeping size small to medium in case I need to quickly close the positions. But I'm mini-bulled up," he added.

The bet is in crypto, not in Anthropic stock.

The trade sits at odds with his own dilution thesis

The position contrasts with Hayes's Nov. 5 essay, "D is for Dilution", in which he wrote: "Absent any dramatic change in the fiat liquidity picture, Maelstrom will chill on the sidelines and watch the implosion of AI mega IPOs under the weight of dilution."

Drawing on Anthropic's S-1 filing — the registration document a company files with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission before going public — Hayes estimated in the essay that initial IPO investors would be diluted 83% by June 2027, making it mathematically "almost impossible" for the stock to climb from its listing until that date. He compared those buyers to early traders of Zcash, the privacy-focused cryptocurrency launched in 2016, most of whom stayed under water as new ZEC supply hit the market.

His macro view has also shifted in recent weeks. On Nov. 2, Hayes said a weak bitcoin outlook is tied to bank and Federal Reserve balance sheets. In an interview published Oct. 2, however, he said he expects an AI bailout worth trillions of dollars to boost crypto in about 12 to 18 months.

Roadshow launched for an 825 million-share offering

Anthropic commenced its roadshow on Nov. 10 — the pre-listing marketing tour during which a company pitches its offering to institutional investors before shares are priced — and plans to list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT. The roadshow announcement came before the company's registration statement had been declared effective, the step required before shares can be sold to the public.

The offering comprises 825 million Class A shares priced between $70 and $78 apiece, with the company selling 801.35 million and the remainder sold by existing stockholders. At the top of the range, the sale would raise as much as $64.4 billion and value the company at around $1.4 trillion, as Cryptopolitan reported.

Google, Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom, Micron Technology, Microsoft and TSMC have also agreed to a $26 billion private placement, buying nonvoting Class N shares at the IPO price in a deal set to close immediately after the listing.

Anthropic reported revenue of $33.2 billion for the first nine months of the year, with its operating loss narrowing to $1.3 billion from $5.2 billion. Purchase and lease obligations total approximately $900.9 billion, chiefly for computing, of which $70.7 billion is payable within 12 months of September 30.

Bitfinex maps three channels from the listing to bitcoin

Analysts at Bitfinex say the listing, scheduled for Nov. 19, will affect bitcoin through three channels. The first is sentiment: Anthropic's valuation sits well below the roughly $2 trillion figure floated in September, and its reception will be read as a verdict on AI valuations.

About one fifth of the offering is earmarked for retail investors, drawing on money that overlaps with crypto's retail base. There is also more than $260 million of open interest in pre-listing Anthropic contracts on crypto derivatives venues, trading around 23% above the top of the IPO range.

In a Bitfinex Alpha report, the analysts wrote that bitcoin has absorbed 91% of the Nasdaq 100's losses on down days since the index's Oct. 6 record high, but only 58% of its gains on up days. They attributed the gap to a lack of buying from ETFs and corporate treasuries. At the time of writing, BTC traded at $70,828, down 3.8% over the past 24 hours. Heading into the Nov. 19 listing, the markers to watch are the offering's final pricing, ANT's first trades on Nasdaq, and the closing of the tech companies' $26 billion private placement immediately after the listing.

Quick exits after months of sales scrutiny

Hayes's emphasis on fast exits follows months of scrutiny over his token sales, as Cryptopolitan has reported. In June, on-chain observers said Maelstrom sent $1.92 million of CARDS tokens to market maker Flowdesk days after Hayes pushed the token. Weeks earlier, blockchain investigator ZachXBT questioned sales of HYPE, NEAR, ZEC and WLD. Hayes said he "sold to a willing seller at a price."