Arthur Hayes Backs Ethereum (ETH) Longs Over AI Shorts, Sees $1 Million Bitcoin
Key Takeaways
- •BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes advised traders on Thursday to abandon short bets against AI-related assets and instead take long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
- •Hayes said he does not know whether the AI sector will crash, and he based his crypto positioning on a liquidity thesis rather than a forecast for the AI boom's fate.
- •He has previously set a $1 million Bitcoin price target that he links to expanding fiat liquidity and rising government deficit spending, with central bank decisions and fiscal budgets as the variables to watch.
- •In his framework, AI equities and the largest cryptocurrencies are parallel beneficiaries of the same global liquidity expansion, which leads him to favor holding the most liquid crypto assets over betting against crowded trades.
- •Hayes co-founded the derivatives exchange BitMEX in 2014 and served as its chief executive until 2020, and he is now among the most closely followed macro commentators in digital assets.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes told traders on Thursday to stop betting against the artificial intelligence (AI) trade and to position instead for the money he says will come after it: long Bitcoin and long Ethereum (ETH).
In a post on X, Hayes wrote that he "does not know whether artificial intelligence will finally crash and will not bet…". The excerpt indicates that rather than wagering on a downturn in AI-related assets, Hayes is directing attention toward the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization. The positioning is not, by his own account, a call on whether the AI boom continues or stalls; it rests on the liquidity argument he has developed across his wider body of writing.
The $1 million Bitcoin reference reflects a long-standing target Hayes has articulated in previous essays, one he has tied to expanding fiat liquidity and government deficit spending. Within that framing, the variables to watch are the policy inputs themselves — central bank decisions and fiscal budgets — the same themes he examines in his long-form commentary.
Hayes co-founded BitMEX, a cryptocurrency derivatives exchange, in 2014 and served as its chief executive until 2020. Since then, he has become one of the most closely watched macro commentators in digital assets, publishing essays on his blog, Crypto Trader Digest, and on X, where he focuses on central bank policy and its impact on Bitcoin and other risk assets. That profile is why a single X post from him draws attention across the digital-asset industry.
His preference for long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum over shorting the AI trade is consistent with a framework he has described in past writings: both sectors, in his view, benefit from the same global liquidity expansion, and he favors holding the most liquid crypto assets rather than betting against crowded trades. On that reading, AI equities the largest cryptocurrencies are parallel expressions of the same monetary backdrop rather than opposing bets. Readers tracking how the thesis develops can follow his essays on Crypto Trader Digest and his posts on X, where he has previously laid out the liquidity and deficit arguments behind his targets.
This report was first published by COINOTAG on October 16, 2026: COINOTAG
