Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, has declared that a new Bitcoin bull market is underway, attributing it to what he describes as a stealth expansion of dollar liquidity under U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

In his latest essay, “Same Same But Different,” Hayes argues that Bessent’s aggressive use of longer-dated Treasury buybacks amounts to a form of monetary stimulus that will flow disproportionately into Bitcoin and broader risk assets.

According to Hayes, the Treasury’s recent decision to increase long-end bond buybacks—though initially modest—signals a broader commitment to suppressing 10-year Treasury yields, which he identifies as the most critical price in the American financial system. Both consumer mortgages and corporate borrowing costs are keyed off this benchmark, so Treasury actions in this part of the curve can influence funding conditions well beyond the bond market. Authorities have historically treated the 5% level as a hard ceiling requiring decisive intervention.

When yields approached this threshold in late 2023, then-Secretary Janet Yellen engineered a substantial liquidity injection by shifting issuance toward short-dated Treasury bills, draining the Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Program from $2.5 trillion to roughly $100 billion. Hayes notes that this maneuver, later termed “Activist Treasury Issuance,” rehypothecated idle cash into the banking system, sending the Nasdaq 100 and Bitcoin sharply higher even as the Federal Reserve maintained elevated policy rates and simultaneously shrank its balance sheet.

Announcing the essay on X, Hayes wrote:

"Same Same But Different" is an essay on why you should back up the truck and buy crypto with both hands. "Bad Gurl Yellen and Buffalo Bill Bessent are the same whether their rhetoric before taking office differed. They both suffered under the yoke of politicians who couldn’t… pic.twitter.com/JVduhAnS8S

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) August 25, 2026

Monetization Mechanics: T-Bill Strategy, Yield Control, and Bitcoin’s Liquidity Signal

Hayes draws a direct parallel between Yellen’s bill-issuance strategy and Bessent’s current approach. By ramping up T-bill issuance, Bessent can rely on the Federal Reserve’s Reserves Management Program to create banking reserves and absorb the paper, effectively monetizing fiscal deficits without requiring fresh congressional authorization.

The proceeds can then fund buybacks of longer-dated debt, capping yields and injecting liquidity into financial markets. Hayes suggests that if the 10-year yield breaches 5%, Bessent could escalate toward de facto yield-curve control or drain the Treasury General Account, which currently holds approximately $1 trillion.

Bitcoin, Hayes argues, functions as the “global liquidity smoke alarm,” rallying in anticipation of these injections. That framing matters for crypto traders and broader markets because it ties Bitcoin’s moves not to a standalone narrative, but to the plumbing of Treasury issuance, bank reserves and rate-sensitive assets. He predicts continued upward momentum but warns of higher volatility, advising unleveraged, long-term positioning rather than speculative leverage.

Maelstrom, his investment fund, has positioned itself at “maximum risk” across Bitcoin, Ether, Ethena, and Ether.fi. While an alternative scenario involving fiscal restraint remains theoretically possible, Hayes dismisses it as politically improbable ahead of upcoming elections. He concludes that regardless of whether liquidity expands gradually through incremental buybacks or abruptly via more aggressive intervention, the trajectory for dollar-sensitive assets points firmly higher.