Bitcoin could eventually surpass $1 million if the artificial intelligence investment boom culminates in a credit crisis requiring large-scale U.S. government intervention, according to Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer at crypto investment firm Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX.

Hayes detailed the thesis in his August 5 newsletter, contending that the current surge in AI spending more closely resembles a real estate credit bubble than a conventional technology bubble.

AI Spending as a Credit Bubble

Hayes argues that the present AI investment cycle is fueled primarily by financing for data center construction rather than sustainable technology profits. Unlike the dot-com bubble of 2000, which unraveled after internet companies failed to produce earnings, he believes the AI sector is undergoing a debt-fueled infrastructure expansion akin to the U.S. housing market prior to the 2008 financial crisis. Major technology companies—including Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon—have committed tens of billions of dollars to AI infrastructure buildouts, significantly expanding the capital at risk if projected returns fail to materialize.

He pointed to data center construction expected to slow from mid-to-late 2027, with a more pronounced deceleration visible by 2028.

Hayes also raised broader concerns about the magnitude of AI investment. Annual spending on AI infrastructure is estimated between $400 billion and $700 billion, while critics note that many enterprise AI projects have yet to deliver meaningful returns. At the same time, expensive GPUs risk becoming obsolete before data centers recoup their construction costs—a particular vulnerability given that leading-edge AI accelerator chips typically have product cycles of two years or less.

Power grid limitations, protracted permitting processes, and supply chain bottlenecks could further prevent many announced projects from reaching completion, intensifying pressure on the sector.

Government Intervention and Bitcoin

Hayes contends that a severe contraction in AI-related credit markets would likely trigger intervention from U.S. authorities. He noted that the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund—a facility created in 1934 under the Gold Reserve Act originally intended for currency market intervention—currently holds approximately $28 billion. Through leverage comparable to previous rescue programs, he argued, authorities could mobilize as much as $280 billion to support AI-related companies.

Such liquidity injections would expand the money supply, ultimately benefiting scarce assets like Bitcoin—whose supply is algorithmically capped at 21 million coins—and helping drive the cryptocurrency above $1 million over time, according to Hayes.

Near-Term Outlook

Despite his long-term bullish thesis, Hayes expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound in the near term, trading between $60,000 and $70,000. He warned that the price could briefly dip toward $50,000 if selling pressure intensifies.

Context

Hayes is widely regarded as one of crypto's most prominent market commentators. As co-founder of BitMEX, one of the industry's earliest cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges, he established a reputation for analyzing Bitcoin through macroeconomic and global liquidity frameworks.

Hayes accurately anticipated Bitcoin's rise above $100,000 during the 2024 bull market, though some of his shorter-term forecasts have proven off target. His essays remain closely followed by crypto investors and frequently shape market discussion.

Bitcoin price forecasts remain highly speculative, and analysts have historically struggled to predict the timing and scale of cryptocurrency market cycles.