BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has cautioned that equity dilution surrounding a wave of initial public offerings by major artificial intelligence companies could put pressure on stock prices, tighten financing conditions across the AI industry, and weigh on Bitcoin in the short term. In his view, however, a potential central bank response to a systemic crisis could eventually create a more favorable environment for the cryptocurrency, according to a report by Hokanews.

In his latest essay, titled “D is for Dilution,” Hayes examined the possible consequences of large-scale share unlocks and the equity dilution that could follow IPOs by prominent AI companies, including SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI. He argued that these developments could affect the valuations of the companies' shares while increasing debt financing costs across the AI sector.

Share unlocks occur when restrictions that keep early holders' stock off the market lapse after a listing, enlarging the supply of shares available to trade, while dilution shrinks the proportional ownership of existing shareholders as new equity is issued. Both mechanics are central to the scenario Hayes describes for the AI listing cycle.

Anthropic Early Investors Face Potential 83% Dilution

Hayes highlighted the potential scale of dilution facing early investors in Anthropic, one of the leading AI companies named in the essay. According to his estimate, those investors could experience equity dilution of up to 83% by June 2027.

The figure describes a reduction in ownership percentage rather than an outright loss of holdings: as new shares enter circulation, each existing stake represents a smaller slice of the company. The estimate illustrates the potential impact that share unlocks and additional equity issuance could have on existing shareholders. Hayes also warned that the consequences may extend beyond individual companies, potentially affecting financing conditions throughout the broader AI industry.

Why Hayes Sees Short-Term Pressure on Bitcoin

Hayes linked the outlook for AI company valuations to broader financial market liquidity. In his assessment, a decline in AI stock prices could weaken the pace of bank credit expansion, contributing to a contraction in dollar liquidity. Dollar liquidity in this context refers to the availability of US dollar credit across the financial system, with bank lending among its principal sources.

That potential reduction in liquidity could weigh on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency assets. The argument connects developments in the AI equity market with conditions in the wider financial system, rather than treating the performance of technology stocks as an isolated issue for investors.

Against this backdrop, Hayes said his investment firm, Maelstrom, would remain on the sidelines until liquidity conditions show a clear improvement. The position reflects his stated preference to wait for stronger liquidity conditions before making further investment decisions.

Central Bank Intervention Could Change the Long-Term Outlook

Despite his near-term concerns, Hayes outlined a different potential outcome over a longer period, according to reporting by Wu Blockchain. He expects that if the AI industry experiences a systemic crisis, central banks may ultimately respond with monetary easing.

Such a policy response would be bullish for Bitcoin in the long run, according to Hayes. By that logic, easing would expand the same pool of dollar credit whose potential contraction is the source of the short-term concern. His outlook therefore distinguishes between the potential short-term effects of tighter dollar liquidity and the longer-term implications of monetary easing if financial authorities intervene during a broader crisis.

Hayes' assessment places AI company share dilution, bank credit expansion and central bank policy within the same liquidity framework. For now, Maelstrom plans to stay on the sidelines until there is clearer evidence that liquidity conditions have improved.