South Korea's Kospi opened at 5,638.34 on Tuesday, a 3.09% gain that marked its first advance in four sessions. The rally was driven by chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, which surged on Anthropic's IPO filing. The same day, the Bank of Korea, the country's central bank, told lawmakers that the country's chip exports could drop by as much as $100 billion if U.S. technology firms pull back on artificial intelligence spending.

How is the market reacting to Anthropic's IPO?

Anthropic, the developer behind the Claude AI model, has publicly filed its S-1 registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission and is seeking a Nasdaq listing under the ticker ANT, as Cryptopolitan reported. A public S-1 filing is the disclosure document U.S. regulators require before shares can list, putting a company's financials under formal review ahead of its market debut.

According to the filing, the company's first-half revenue reached $16.29 billion, up roughly 1,300% year on year, while its operating loss narrowed to about $700 million from $2.14 billion. Those figures eased concerns that AI spending might never translate into profit. SK Telecom, a South Korean telecom operator and an early backer that put $100 million into Anthropic, rose about 6%.

The KOSPI index opened 3.46% higher at 5,658.65 and climbed into the 5,700 range in early trading, triggering a five-minute program-buy sidecar around 10:13 a.m., the exchange's automatic brake on program trading during abrupt index swings. Samsung finished up more than 4% and SK Hynix more than 5%. Both are among the world's largest memory chipmakers, a segment whose demand is closely tied to the data-center buildout behind large AI models. The Kosdaq added 2.29% to close at 743.83.

Foreign investors bought a net 592.7 billion won and institutions a net 282.1 billion won, while individuals sold a net 949.2 billion won.

What is the Bank of Korea pessimistic about?

Even as equities recovered, the Bank of Korea, in a written reply to lawmaker Ahn Do-geol, outlined what it called a "pessimistic scenario." The reply states that if major U.S. technology companies cut back on their spending next year, South Korea could sell $50 billion to $100 billion less in chips than expected.

The bank's model also assumes that chip prices will fall by 10%, an assumption consistent with the steep boom-and-bust cycles that have historically defined memory pricing. Under that scenario, South Korea would export less, causing its economy to grow about 0.4 percentage points more slowly next year. The country's current account surplus would also fall well below the $430 billion the bank predicted for 2027.

Chips account for roughly half of South Korea's exports, which is why the bank continues to caution against such heavy reliance on them.

The bank's filing showed that Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle together spent $40 billion last year, are expected to spend $80 billion this year, and may reach $110 billion next year. However, the bank noted that it remains unclear how AI demand and the memory chip cycle will unfold.

The Bank of Korea reported third-quarter real GDP growth of 1.0%, more than triple its August forecast of 0.3%. Exports rose 2.3%, led by semiconductors, and the bank's initial annual growth forecast of 3.3% is now expected to be revised higher.

Lee Dong-won, the official in charge of economic statistics, estimated that semiconductors alone accounted for as much as half of the quarter's growth. At the same time, private consumption declined 0.2%, the first decrease since late 2022.

SK Hynix is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Wednesday, followed by Samsung Electronics on Thursday. The outcome of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting and AI capital-spending guidance from U.S. big tech companies are also in play. Those releases will provide the next concrete readings on AI chip demand and big-tech spending plans, the two variables on which both Tuesday's rally and the bank's warning turn.