Over the course of President Donald Trump's second term, longtime allies have taken steps to distance themselves from the United States — a trend that has been emphasized by events around the globe over the past few days. On Monday, Phillips O'Brien, a widely cited strategic studies professor at the University of St Andrews, took to social media to explain the "real story" behind the world's sudden skepticism at allying with America, publishing his assessment in posts on X, X and X, and in articles on his Substack and Substack.

According to O'Brien, the "American Age" is "over" in theaters where the country has long dominated — Europe, the Middle East and the Pacific — as questions have been raised "about how (and even if) the US can exert military power" in vital regions. The label describes the post-World War II order the United States built and led for roughly eight decades: NATO in Europe, mutual defense treaties with Japan and South Korea in Asia, and the forward-deployed forces that anchored allied security in all three theaters.

"People are overlooking one really important development happening in those states which were loyal and helpful US allies," O'Brien explained. "It is not that the US is not to be trusted, is spiteful and is now working with Russia, North Korea, etc. The real story is that these states are discovering that the USA is much weaker than they thought."

Trump's war with Iran, O'Brien argued, has not only diminished the United States militarily but has also accidentally exposed that the country has major limitations in the first place.

"With the withdrawal of the last US aircraft carrier from the Western Pacific, the overall degradation of the US military, and the US now openly attacking its former allies, we need to face a stunning reality: An 'age' is ending. We will not see its like again," he wrote.

While many of the signals that this age is ending have been diplomatic, O'Brien said there has also been a slew of blatant material evidence. Recent reports that the U.S. is running low on vital munitions were one glaring sign, as were troop withdrawals from military installations across the Gulf that have proven vulnerable to Iranian attack.

Then, in response to reports of the abysmal living conditions aboard U.S. naval vessels in the Gulf, the Trump administration announced it would withdraw the USS Abraham Lincoln from its record-long deployment and replace it with the USS George Washington — a move that will leave the United States without an aircraft carrier in the Pacific. Carrier groups have been the backbone of US naval power projection since World War II and the most visible signal of Washington's commitments in the Western Pacific. The result is a major boon to China, which has spent decades attempting to expand its naval dominance throughout the region.

O'Brien also raised the issue of Trump's attacks on American allies, pointing to the president's Sunday decree that the U.S. would reduce its role in military exercises with longtime ally South Korea — an announcement he delivered with praise of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, with whom Trump declared he has a "very good" relationship. The US-South Korea alliance dates to the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty that followed the Korean War, and recurring joint exercises have long been its operational core. Trump suggested that his decision was in retribution for South Korea's refusal to join the war with Iran, and he described North Korea — a nuclear-armed country that has frequently expressed its hostility toward the U.S. — as "unthreatening and respectful."

In response to Trump's reshuffling of American allies and adversaries, O'Brien suggested: "He is just itching to join an alliance with Russia, North Korea and China. And who knows, maybe eventually Iran."

His assessment speaks to a question that has moved to the center of allied planning in both Europe and Asia: whether the American power underwriting their security arrangements remains as dependable as they long assumed.

Source: Alternet