Amazon.com (AMZN) shares sit near $252 as fresh data points to a record U.S. online holiday shopping season ahead. According to Adobe Analytics, online holiday spending is on track to climb 7% from 2025 to a record $275.1 billion, despite ongoing inflation and higher interest rates. If the projection holds, it would mark an all-time high for the season.

The forecast also outlines where that spending is expected to concentrate, from an early October push through Cyber Week, and which product categories are expected to see the strongest demand. Retailers are not waiting for the season to arrive: Adobe reports that companies are already rolling out larger promotions and more flexible payment options such as Buy Now, Pay Later, which lets shoppers split purchases into installments. For Amazon, whose marketplace anchors U.S. e-commerce, the projections arrive just ahead of the most important selling window on the retail calendar.

Cyber Week and Black Friday

Cyber Week, the stretch spanning Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, is expected to account for the largest single share of the season. Adobe projects $47.5 billion in sales during that stretch, equal to 17% of all holiday spending, with Cyber Monday alone bringing in more than $15 billion.

Black Friday is not far behind. Adobe projects $12.9 billion in sales that day, a 9% increase from last year, driven largely by discounts on electronics, apparel, and appliances.

Prime Day Moves the Holiday Calendar

The season begins earlier than usual this year. Amazon's Prime Day event runs October 6 and 7, well ahead of the traditional holiday rush. Adobe expects total online spending in October to reach $95.8 billion, up 8% year over year, with roughly $10 billion of that flowing directly to Amazon during the Prime Day window. Because it lands before the traditional rush, the event also doubles as an early checkpoint on whether October spending materializes at the scale Adobe projects.

According to Adobe, the event has reshaped the holiday calendar entirely: retailers now have to manage inventory and promotions around an earlier spending spike, rather than concentrating on the usual November and December crunch.

Adobe's forecast also tracks spending outside traditional gifting, where category-level swings are pronounced. Compared with September levels, personal hygiene product sales are expected to jump 150%, clothing basics could rise 210%, and baby products are projected to climb 113%. Pet products round out the list with a 93% projected increase, while household cleaning items are expected to rise 49%.

What Shoppers Are Expected to Buy

Electronics remain the top draw for gift shoppers, with gaming consoles, televisions, and computers all expected to sell well. The Nintendo Switch 2, PlayStation 5/Pro, and Xbox Series X are expected to lead console sales. Among software titles, Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4, EA Sports FC 27, and Grand Theft Auto VI are tipped to be the top-selling games.

Toys are also expected to perform strongly in Adobe's outlook. Beyblade X, Jellycat plush toys, KPop Demon Hunters merchandise, and LEGO Pokémon sets are all forecast to move quickly off shelves.

Other expected bestsellers include Apple's AirPods Pro 4 and iPhone 18 Pro and Duo, the Dyson Airwrap, Google's Pixel 11, Meta's AI glasses, the Oura Ring 5, and Samsung's Galaxy S26 and Z Fold 8.

The report also identifies beneficiaries of the seasonal surge beyond Amazon. Walmart and Target are expected to gain from the holiday spending wave, while credit card companies such as American Express should see a lift, along with device makers including Apple and Meta Platforms.

Analyst Consensus

Wall Street's published ratings on Amazon remain firmly positive heading into the holiday stretch, according to analyst consensus data. The stock holds a consensus Strong Buy rating from 40 analysts, built on 39 Buy calls and just one Hold issued over the past three months. The average price target stands at $334.70, implying roughly 33% upside from current levels — a gap of more than $80 between market price and analyst expectations. That target reflects analyst confidence that Amazon is well positioned to capture a large share of the record spending Adobe forecasts for this season.