Amazon River Low Water Levels Heighten Navigational Risk During 2026 Dry Season

Marine Insurance P&I Club News — August 11, 2026

Seasonal Variations and Forecasts

The Amazon basin experiences well-defined wet and dry seasons, with water levels typically receding between June and November. Although seasonal fluctuations are a routine aspect of navigation in the region, forecasts linked to potential El Niño conditions have raised concerns that water levels could drop substantially below normal seasonal averages during the 2026 dry season. The Amazon and its tributaries form a critical logistics corridor for South American commerce — carrying grain, mineral, fuel, and container cargoes, and linking the Manaus Free Trade Zone to Atlantic and global markets — so even moderate disruptions to navigability can have cascading effects across regional supply chains.

Navigational Restrictions

Reduced water depths are expected to narrow under-keel clearance (UKC) margins and expose hazards that were previously submerged. Silting and sediment movement may also alter channel configurations and navigable depths. As shoals and channels shift, reliance on up-to-date navigational information and local pilot guidance becomes increasingly critical.

Gard Claims Experience

Gard's 2021 insight report, Incident Hot Spots — A Global Overview of Navigation Incidents, identified the Amazon region as an area prone to grounding incidents. Consistent with that finding, Gard's claims data across multiple covers for the 2021–2025 period indicates continued exposure in the region. Cases recorded during this timeframe were approximately 35% higher than the average for the preceding three-year period, undersoring the heightened navigational risk associated with low-water conditions. During the severe Amazon drought of 2023, water levels at key gauges fell to record lows, forcing vessels to lighten cargoes and delaying river shipments — an episode that illustrates the operational and commercial consequences when dry-season conditions intensify beyond historical norms.

Operational Considerations

Maintain close liaison: Routinely verify local draft limits, bathymetric updates, and regulatory notices with port agents and terminal operators before entering the river system, and maintain a continuous watch on VHF channel 16.

Review clearance requirements: Strictly adhere to the latest UKC parameters issued by the local Captaincy of the Ports (CFAOC).

Monitor crew comfort: Ensure shipboard heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are fully operational and regularly maintained, in compliance with local labor mandates regarding extreme thermal discomfort during the peak dry season.

Updated charts and fully functional navigation equipment: Confirm that nautical charts are current and that navigation equipment — including two independent operational radars and two working anchors — is tested and fully functional before entering or departing Amazon ports.

Heighten ship security: The Amazon region is highly susceptible to armed robbery, with boarding incidents rising during the dry season. Ships and barge convoys, particularly those transporting fuel products, face elevated vulnerability. Crews must remain alert for nearby convoys and small craft such as barges, riverboats, mining rafts, and canoes — many of which are wooden and difficult to detect on standard shipborne radar.

Conduct rigorous contractual reviews: Given severe draft constraints, shipowners and operators should thoroughly examine charter parties, contracts of carriage, and logistics service agreements. Particular attention should be directed toward clauses covering partial loading, transshipment, deviation, waiting time, demurrage, force majeure, and the strict allocation of additional operational costs.

Conclusion

Reduced navigable depths, shifting channel conditions, and constrained UKC margins are likely to increase grounding exposure across parts of the Amazon basin during the 2026 dry season. Gard's claims experience underscores the navigational risks tied to periods of low water levels — risks that operators should incorporate into voyage planning from the outset.

Source: Gard