Voters in Alberta, the Canadian province that holds the world's fourth-largest proven oil reserves and sends roughly 90% of its crude oil exports to the United States, go to the polls on Monday, Oct. 19, to decide whether to take the first step toward a referendum on leaving Canada.

The vote is not a direct secession ballot. Instead, voters will choose whether the province should remain in Canada or begin the legal process toward a future referendum on separation.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who called the vote while supporting continued membership in Canada, said recent polling put support for starting the separation process at around 23% — a level she described as "still too high for my liking."

A Long-Running Feud With Ottawa

Alberta has feuded for decades with the federal government over oil and federal power. Liberal prime ministers Pierre Trudeau and, decades later, his son Justin became deeply unpopular in the province over energy policy. Justin Trudeau's government imposed a national carbon tax and other climate measures that Alberta leaders said hurt the province's oil industry.

Even so, separatist parties typically drew only 1% or 2% of the vote, former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said — a baseline against which Monday's result will be measured.

Then came the pandemic and the Freedom Convoy, which paralyzed parts of Ottawa, the Canadian capital, and blocked major Canada-U.S. border crossings.

"They needed a new cause," Kenney told The Associated Press. "And it naturally morphed into separatism."

A Movement Energized by COVID-19

Jeff Rath, a leader of the independence movement, said federal vaccine rules preventing unvaccinated Canadians from flying were his breaking point.

"If Trudeau won't let me leave Alberta, I'm just going to pick up my whole province and go," Rath recalled telling a friend. "COVID was really the straw that broke the camel's back."

"A lot of people were radicalized by the convoy," he said.

The 2022 Freedom Convoy began as a protest over vaccine requirements for cross-border truckers but grew into a broader revolt against pandemic restrictions. Kenney said people mobilized out of anger at globalization, vaccines and pandemic restrictions, while social media allowed previously isolated activists to find one another and organize.

"They found each other and they found a cause," Kenney said.

Kenney said the movement also became more professional, building organizations, raising money and drawing in political operatives with campaign and fundraising experience. He also sees substantial overlap between separatist activists and people who support Russian President Vladimir Putin or believe conspiracy theories about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Kenney stressed that he was describing activists rather than typical separation voters, whom he characterized as frustrated Albertans sending a message to Ottawa.

He said the MAGA movement has been "inspirational" for some separatist activists, who he said "tried to infiltrate with at least some success" the United Conservative Party he founded. Smith replaced Kenney in 2022 after appealing to United Conservative Party members angry over COVID-19 restrictions.

"Literally, you can look at the players," Kenney said of the convoy and separatist movements. "It's the same people."

Carney's Outreach to Alberta

Prime Minister Mark Carney has made getting Alberta oil to new markets a national priority and backs a proposed pipeline to the West Coast that would open export routes beyond the United States. His more business- and energy-friendly policies, along with his opposition to U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war and 51st-state rhetoric, have made the federal Liberal leader unusually popular in conservative Alberta.

Kenney, one of the most prominent conservative critics of Trudeau's approach to Alberta, said Carney "speaks as an Albertan," understands the province's grievances and aspirations, and is moving in the right direction on energy.

Rath called Carney a "formidable opponent," acknowledged that "every major politician" in Alberta and Canada opposes the separatists, and conceded an uphill battle. He said he would be "thrilled" with more than 30% of the vote — well short of a majority.

"Canada is facing real threats to our economy, to our security, to our way of life," Carney said. "We have to be strong and we are stronger together."

Lobbying in Washington

Alberta sends roughly 90% of its crude oil exports to the United States, and separatists have taken their campaign directly to Washington. Rath confirmed that he and other independence advocates met with U.S. State Department officials three times and presented a document outlining what an independent Alberta could offer the United States.

Rath claimed that people involved in the meetings were going directly to the White House and that a possible oil pipeline through the U.S. to the Pacific was "literally a topic of our last meeting with the U.S. State Department."

The State Department said: "The Department regularly meets with a wide range of representatives. The vote is a decision for the people of Alberta."

Kenney called the outreach "bonkers," saying people with "zero democratic mandate" were discussing with a foreign government "the status of a separate state that does not exist." U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called Alberta "a natural partner."

Keith Wilson, another Alberta independence leader who served as lead counsel for the 2022 convoy organizers, said separatists see the vote as a way to give Alberta more leverage in dealing with Ottawa, even short of independence.

"That's right, because it's called leverage. It's called negotiation," Wilson said. He added that he would accept substantial structural changes to Alberta's relationship with Ottawa short of independence.

"I don't think it will recede," Kenney said of the separatist movement. Even 10% to 20% support, he noted, would far exceed separatists' historic vote share, and low turnout that pushed them toward 30% would leave them "even more emboldened." Monday's tally will now test those benchmarks against an actual count.

"That's not a threat to Canada," Kenney said. "But it is a threat to the conservative movement."

A Parallel in Quebec

Alberta is not Canada's only national-unity challenge. Quebec voters returned the separatist Parti Quebecois to power on Oct. 5, although support for independence remains around 30% and the party's leader has said he will not hold a referendum while Trump is U.S. president. Quebec voters have twice rejected independence, most recently by a razor-thin margin in a 1995 referendum. Alberta's ballot on Monday lands two weeks after that Quebec election, keeping two of Canada's unity debates running in parallel.

This story originally featured on Fortune.