Alaska's 2026 race for governor is shaping up as an unexpected problem for the Republican Party: a Democrat is mounting a strong campaign while three Republicans remain in the field, a divide that one of the state's best-known political observers attributes to the weakness of the GOP lineup.

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, a 37-year-old former state representative, took first place in August's open primary, a single ballot on which all candidates compete regardless of party and the top four finishers advance. He is the sole Democrat among the four candidates who will appear on the November ballot. All three Republicans — Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson, and Treg Taylor — have stayed in the race, meaning Republican voters will have three choices under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, part of the election overhaul state voters adopted by ballot measure in 2020. Under those rules, voters rank candidates in order of preference; if no one wins a majority of first-choice votes, the last-place finisher is eliminated and those ballots are redistributed, with the process repeating until a candidate secures a majority.

That unusual lineup gives Kreiss-Tomkins a genuine opportunity to become the first Democrat elected governor of Alaska since Tony Knowles, who won a second term in 1998 and left office in 2002.

Larry Persily, a longtime observer of Alaska politics who previously owned the Wrangell Sentinel and worked as editorial page editor of the Anchorage Daily News, told The Guardian that Kreiss-Tomkins' strong position is shaped both by his campaign and by national politics. "They just put up a bunch of political losers," Persily said of the Republicans.

A recent bipartisan survey by AARP illustrates why Republicans are worried. Kreiss-Tomkins received 40 percent of first-preference votes, while Wilson, Bronson, and Taylor collectively obtained 41 percent. The ranked-choice tabulation showed Kreiss-Tomkins defeating Wilson, the leading Republican, by a margin of 10 points.

Wilson has urged both Bronson and Taylor to withdraw so that Republicans can unite behind her, but neither has agreed. Bronson maintains that the GOP can win if conservative voters rank all of its candidates rather than selecting only a first choice.

The contest is taking place in a state that President Donald Trump won by 13 points in 2024. Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy is retiring after two terms, and the state's Permanent Fund Div, which voters dislike, is among the campaign's issues. The 2026 payment is set at $1,000, together with $200 for energy relief.

Kreiss-Tomkins has directed his campaign toward face-to-face contact with voters. Over the summer, he covered hundreds of miles by boat along the Yukon River, visiting small villages that candidates usually do not go to. He has made education and reducing everyday costs the key elements of his platform.

The Republicans have encountered difficulties of their own. Wilson finished third in the primary, behind Kreiss-Tomkins and Democrat Tom Begich. Begich then withdrew from the race and backed Kreiss-Tomkins, which enabled Taylor to enter the final four alongside Wilson and Bronson.

With all three Republicans still appearing on the November ballot, the contest will show whether GOP voters rank all of their favored candidates — or whether Kreiss-Tomkins can turn his primary victory into a rare Democratic win in Alaska.