Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ: AFRM) delivered a strong fiscal fourth quarter, beating Wall Street expectations on both revenue and gross merchandise volume while unveiling an expansion of its Shopify partnership into Australia. Shares of the buy-now-pay-later provider jumped 8.9% to $84.42 on Friday, the stock's largest single-day gain since January.

Revenue came in at $1.2 billion for the three months ended June 30, up 33% year over year and ahead of the roughly $1.1 billion analysts had expected. Gross merchandise volume hit $14.1 billion, a 36% increase that comfortably topped the $13.4 billion consensus estimate. Direct merchant point-of-sale integrations drove roughly half of that growth, underscoring how central deep checkout partnerships with large merchants such as Amazon and Shopify have become to Affirm's scale.

GAAP operating margins expanded six percentage points from a year earlier to 12.6%, reflecting the operating leverage the company has been building and extending its shift into sustained GAAP profitability, a threshold Affirm first cleared on a full-year basis in fiscal 2025. Newly appointed company president Michael Linford, Affirm's former chief financial officer and chief operating officer, called the quarter a “home run,” pointing out that it marked the 11th straight quarter of GMV growth above 30%.

Shopify Australia Expansion

The earnings beat landed alongside a strategic announcement: on the same day results were released, Affirm said it was expanding its partnership with Shopify to launch Shop Pay Installments in Australia. Since launching in 2021, the product has been one of Shopify's most popular payment options across the US, Canada, and the UK.

The move marks Affirm's return to the Australian market, which the company exited in 2023 during a broader cost-cutting drive. The re-entry puts Affirm into one of the world's most mature buy-now-pay-later markets: Australia is the birthplace of Afterpay, now owned by Block, and home to ASX-listed rival Zip. It is also a newly regulated one, with Australian BNPL providers operating under the national consumer credit framework since mid-2025, including licensing and affordability-check obligations. Merchants on Shopify in Australia can now offer their customers fortnightly or monthly payment options, with no late fees, a hallmark of Affirm's model since its founding.

Linford framed the expansion as Shopify pulling Affirm into yet another market, similar to last year's launch in the UK. “Our largest partner, Shopify, is once again pulling us into a new market,” Linford said. “We really think there's an opportunity here to serve all the markets that Shopify is in.”

Analyst Reaction

Wall Street responded positively to the results, with several analysts raising their price targets. Susquehanna's James Friedman lifted his target to $110 from $105, calling the results and the company's full-year 2027 guidance “exceptionally strong.”

Citi analyst Bryan Keane kept his Buy rating alongside a $115 price target. He described Affirm as a “secular winner in payments” and argued the company is now “too big to be slowed down or disintermediated.”

J.P. Morgan's Connor Allen raised his target to $105 from $90 and reiterated an Overweight rating. Morgan Stanley's James Faucette lifted his target to $82 from $80 but stayed on the sidelines, citing valuation.

Looking ahead, Affirm guided for fiscal year 2027 gross merchandise volume exceeding $64 billion, above the $63 billion analyst consensus. Because Affirm's fiscal year ends June 30, that guidance covers the twelve months beginning in July. The company is also targeting $100 billion in GMV over the medium term, a milestone analysts expect it to reach by 2029.

Credit metrics also moved in the right direction. Affirm's 30-day delinquency rate came in at 2.5% for the quarter, excluding Peloton and Pay in 4 loans, an improvement from the 2.7% to 2.8% range recorded over the prior three quarters. Peloton, once Affirm's largest merchant partner, has dwindled to a small slice of its loan book as the company diversified beyond its early reliance on the fitness-equipment maker.

Affirm stock has gained 4.1% in 2026 through Friday's close, a performance that trails the broader market. Sector peers SoFi and Klarna, which listed on the New York Stock Exchange in September 2025, remain in negative territory year to date, down 27% and 52%, respectively.