Good Projects, Bad Investments: 81 of the Top 100 Altcoins of 2021 Fell at Least 70%

Some of the most promising cryptocurrencies of 2021—projects backed by established teams and sophisticated technology—have lost nearly all their value.

Research by CoinMarketCap prepared for Forbes found that, of the 100 largest altcoins in November 2021, 81 had fallen at least 70% from their levels at that time, while 64 were down at least 90%. The median decline was 94.5%.

Only Seven Tokens Held Their Ground

The study tracked the largest altcoins by market capitalization as of November 10, 2021, near the peak of the crypto market, excluding Bitcoin, stablecoins, and wrapped tokens. Nearly five years later, only seven were worth more than they had been at the start of the period.

The intervening years included major shocks to the industry—among them the 2022 collapse of the Terra ecosystem and the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange—and the broader crypto market entered a steep downturn in 2022.

For investors who selected tokens based on technology, development teams, and potential applications, the results challenge familiar advice: do your own research, look for strong fundamentals, and hold through downturns. The data raise a pointed question—what should investors actually evaluate when buying digital assets, given that even projects with promising technologies can lose nearly all their value?

When Technology Doesn't Translate Into Returns

History offers parallels between technological progress and disappointing investment returns. During the dot-com boom, investors poured money into telecommunications companies building fiber-optic networks. That infrastructure helped shape the modern internet, yet some of its biggest builders went bankrupt.

Crypto investing adds a further complication: the relationship between a network's success and the value of its token. In traditional equity investing, shareholders own a legal interest in a company, and its success can eventually reach them through earnings growth, dividends, buybacks, or a higher valuation. Many coins offer no comparable ownership. Tokens may provide governance rights, enable transactions, or serve other functions without entitling investors to a share of an organization's profits.

A blockchain can attract users and generate fees without creating corresponding demand for its token. Investors therefore need to understand the tokenomics of the asset they are buying: why users need the token, what rights holders receive, and how network activity could support its market value. Tokenomics determines how tokens are issued, distributed, and used within their networks.

When Tokenomics Work Against Holders

During the 2021 crypto boom, some projects had substantial token allocations scheduled for release over subsequent years. Filecoin, a decentralized storage network, for example, distributed additional tokens through mining rewards and vesting schedules, steadily increasing its circulating supply.

Among the 81 altcoins that lost at least 70% of their value, median circulating supply rose 49% over nearly five years while median market capitalization—a token's price multiplied by its circulating supply—declined 94.6%, according to CoinMarketCap. Holding supply constant at its 2021 level while using observed 2026 market capitalizations, researchers calculated that 77 of those 81 tokens would still have lost at least 70%.

Filecoin's circulating supply increased 585% between November 2021 and October 2026, while FIL fell 98.3%. Polkadot, another popular project built to connect blockchains, saw its token supply increase 73% over the same period, and DOT fell 97.5%.

The figures suggest that expanding supply amplified losses for some investors, while declining market valuations accounted for most of the price collapse. "Dilution contributed, but it does not fully explain the losses," Alice Liu, head of research at CoinMarketCap, said in a written response.

For investors, token unlock schedules are one component of valuation. The initial price, circulating supply, and expectations of future adoption also warrant scrutiny.

How Network Growth Affects Token Value

The economic relationship between a blockchain and its token varies greatly. On Arbitrum, for example, users pay transaction fees in Ether (ETH), Ethereum's native cryptocurrency, rather than in Arbitrum's $ARB token. $ARB provides governance rights without automatically entitling holders to network income.

The crypto industry has also been reconsidering how tokens capture economic value. Some established projects have reduced issuance, while others have introduced buybacks or mechanisms to direct a portion of network revenue toward tokenholders. According to CoinGecko, 28 major crypto projects spent more than $1.4 billion buying back their tokens in 2025, with ten projects accounting for 92% of the total. The programs reflect efforts to strengthen the economic relationship between a project's activity and the value of its token.

Investors also need to monitor how a token's economics change over time. Reducing supply, buying back tokens, or sharing network revenue could help support value, although it remains unclear whether these measures will improve long-term returns.

Some projects have seen their tokens rise after changing their economic models. In August 2025, OKB, the exchange token of crypto platform OKX, surged 170% following an announcement that its supply would be sharply reduced. Hyperliquid, a decentralized trading platform, has taken another approach, directing most of its trading-fee revenue toward buying back HYPE tokens, which have outperformed the broader crypto market this year. Other projects, however, have continued losing value despite similar buyback programs. The mixed results leave investors with another factor to assess: how much economic activity actually translates into demand for a token.

Five Years Later

The combined market capitalization of the original 100 altcoins declined by nearly half over five years, even as many of the projects behind them continued developing their technology. One possible explanation is that crypto investors are constantly searching for the next big thing. Over the years, new investment trends have emerged around NFTs, memecoins, AI, and other technologies, drawing attention away from projects that previously dominated.

"Every cycle, retail liquidity rotates to the newest narrative: memecoins, AI agents, now prediction markets," Matt Cepulis, founder and CEO of marketing agency 3betmedia, said in a written response. "On the marketing side, I watch KOL [key opinion leaders in influencer marketing] budgets follow that rotation in real time. Established infrastructure tokens lose their narrative premium and nothing replaces it."

Long-term investing is a familiar strategy in traditional markets. Yet the five-year performance of major altcoins suggests that holding on for too long can wipe out investors' gains, even when the projects behind them keep building.

"A new chain is essentially a startup, and most will fail to find product-market fit before running out of money and attention," Andreas Brekken, founder of crypto exchange SideShift.ai, said in a written response. "It's extremely competitive and a chain must fight for its position every cycle."

As with stocks, assessing valuations, understanding dilution, and evaluating competition remain important. For digital assets, investors must additionally establish whether using a network creates demand for its token, whether holders benefit from the fees it generates, and how future supply might affect their investment.

Five years after the 2021 boom, the study's results suggest that investors who correctly identified promising technologies still had to get two other decisions right: which token to buy, and how much to pay for it.