With Election Day at hand, Alternet columnist D. Earl Stephens has published one of the boldest public forecasts of the 2026 midterms, predicting a Democratic "Blue Tsunami" on Tuesday that would hand the party roughly 30 House seats, six Senate pickups and, for the first time in 16 years, control of more governorships than Republicans.

Stephens, an award-winning journalist and former sportswriter, concedes that his personal record as an election forecaster has been uneven since 2016. But he argues that the conditions heading into this year's vote closely mirror 2006, when Democrats swept both chambers of Congress in the sixth year of a Republican presidency.

A forecaster revisits his record

Stephens opens the column by revisiting the elections he says he called without hesitation: Richard Nixon over George McGovern, Ronald Reagan over Jimmy Carter, Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton in 2008, then over John McCain, and over Mitt Romney in 2012. He counts 2012 — when he says he predicted Obama would win every swing state and defeat Romney decisively — as the last time he got a major call right, noting ruefully that Nate Silver of The New York Times made the same projection and "got all the credit."

"Since then, it's been all downhill for me and my country," he writes. Like many commentators, he says, he insisted Trump could not win in 2016 — a miss he describes as the last time he ever overestimated the country's judgment.

His confidence, however, has returned. He points out that in December he wrote on his Substack that "momentous midterm elections" were coming for Democrats, predicting at the time: "If the midterms were held this Tuesday, Republicans would lose the House by 40 to 60 seats, as well as the Senate. Big races, small races, and medium races would swing toward the Left, because that is exactly what has been quietly happening among the carnage of Trump's continued attack on America."

Eleven months later, with the midterms finally here, he writes that he remains "mighty bullish" on Democratic chances.

The 2006 parallel

The year, Stephens argues, feels very much like 2006, when George W. Bush — like Trump now — was in the sixth year of his presidency. Then as now, he writes, the country was mired in an unpopular war in the Middle East, the economy was showing signs of contraction, and voters were weary of the Republican establishment.

That November, Democrats gained six Senate seats and 31 House seats to take control of both chambers. Bush famously described his party's losses as "a thumping," and Stephens argues the president's tenure "for all intents and purposes was over" from that point — though, in his telling, not before producing "the greatest economic collapse since The Depression." Stephens, who was working in Germany at the time, recalls bars staying open deep into the night as Germans and Americans alike celebrated, and notes that two years later the country elected Obama.

In his assessment, there is "not a single thing recommending Republicans this year," citing war, high prices, dirty air and water, and white supremacy. He describes Trump as one of the most unpopular presidents in history and points to a two-year Democratic winning streak, including landslides in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial elections. "I believe strongly in this case that past performance is very indicative of future results," he writes, adding that the electorate has already shown how it intends to vote "by how they already have."

House: a projected 30-seat gain

Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to take the chamber. Control would carry with it the speakership, committee chairmanships and the power to decide which bills ever reach the floor. Republicans under Speaker Mike Johnson hold a 219-214 edge, with two vacancies — one on each side. If Democrats cannot manage at least that much, Stephens jokes, he will "be packing my bags, and going off to die in some corner." Instead, he expects "huge wins all over the map."

Stephens cautions against direct comparisons with the 2018 "Blue Wave," when Democrats gained a whopping 41 seats to seize the House. That cycle, he notes, they started from a far deeper hole, holding only 195 seats and needing at least 23 pickups for control. While a 41-seat gain is not out of the question this year, he writes, aggressive Republican gerrymandering has left far fewer competitive districts on the 2026 map.

His bottom line, "when all the counting is done": Democrats will pick up an even 30 seats and hold a "commanding" 244-191 majority. He says he was tempted to project as high as 250-185 but chose to hedge his bets.

North Carolina's 1st District as an early signal

For anyone hoping for an early read on election night, Stephens flags the race in his "new backyard": NC-1 in Eastern North Carolina, where Democratic Rep. Don Davis faces Republican challenger Lori Buckhout. Since the 2024 election, North Carolina Republicans have aggressively redrawn the district to make it far more GOP-friendly, with the explicit aim of ensuring a Republican win going forward.

Yet Buckhout, he writes, has spent as much effort running away from the historically unpopular Trump as running against Davis — a dynamic he describes as common across the country. Roughly $40 million has been spent on the contest, an "ungodly" sum for a race Republicans considered in the bag just a year ago. Polls close in North Carolina at 7:30 p.m. EST.

If Davis holds his seat, Stephens writes, it will "portend a very long night for Republicans nationally," and Democrats could be on the way to a full-blown rout that puts the 250-185 scenario in play.

Senate: why Democrats need five seats

The Senate math is straightforward on its face: Democrats need four pickups for a 51-49 majority. A majority would deliver committee chairmanships, control of the floor agenda and the decisive vote on a president's cabinet and judicial nominees. But before laying out his race-by-race rankings, Stephens says it is first necessary to address "the shoddily dressed elephant in the room from Pennsylvania."

Thanks to Sen. John Fetterman — "a Democrat by name only," in his words — Stephens argues that Democrats actually need five seats for a safe majority. With only four, Fetterman would become the most powerful person in the Senate, a role Stephens compares to that of Joe Manchin, the former West Virginia Democrat whose swing vote in the 50-50 Senate repeatedly thwarted President Joe Biden's agenda. In Stephens's view, "Nobody did more damage to Joe Biden's presidency" than Manchin, who "seemed to delight" in using his swing vote against the administration at every opportunity.

To reach five, Stephens says Democrats must first defend the four competitive seats they already hold — Georgia, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Michigan — a task he believes they will accomplish. They must then flip at least five Republican-held seats, and he identifies eight states in serious play, ranked by their probability of flipping blue:

1. North Carolina. Roy Cooper is the Democratic candidate, and Stephens leaves no room for doubt: "If Roy Cooper doesn't win down here, I will eat my hat, and yours for good measure."
2. Alaska. Mary Peltola, whom he calls "the perfect candidate for the state," faces what he describes as a pair of Dan Sullivans. Invoking "another more-famous Sullivan for the Boomers out there," he writes: "This will be a very big shoe, for a very big foot …" Peltola, he predicts, "uses both her feet to kick the two Sullivans out the door."
3. Ohio. Stephens calls Sherrod Brown the perfect Democratic candidate for the state, but trusts Ohio the least. "Used to be 'as Ohio goes, so goes the nation,'" he writes. "This year, as Ohio goes, so goes the Democrats' chances of taking the Senate."
4. Maine. Stephens, who lived in Maine and worked at a newspaper there during the first campaign of Sen. Susan Collins 30 years ago, says he has heard rumors of her political demise for decades and she is still standing. He calls Collins an "underrated politician" who "navigates the squishy middle just about better than anybody," and predicts that if she loses, it will be "closer than a tick on a deer."
5. Texas. He describes Texas as the Democrats' "great white whale" — close enough to taste, but always out of reach. Still, he notes that Republicans once said the same about Pennsylvania, which they finally toppled in 2016 and which is now a premier battleground. "So if Pennsylvania can flip, why not Texas?" he asks, arguing that a Democratic Texas would render everything known about the electoral map obsolete, since "Republicans cannot win the presidency if they can't win Texas." He predicts James Talarico will defeat Ken Paxton, realizing Republicans' worst fears.
6. Iowa. Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson are engaged in what he calls a "good old-fashioned donnybrook." Iowa was a battleground state not long ago, he observes, until Republicans came to dominate its radio airwaves and media markets — "There is a lesson there for Democrats," he writes. A Turek win, he says, would portend a disaster for Republicans nationally.
7. Kansas. The latest polling Stephens could find shows 45 percent of Kansas voters supporting Democrat Adam Hamilton, with 43 percent backing incumbent Republican Roger Marshall. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Kansas in 94 years — "Read that again," he urges — and the fact that the state is even in play is "a win in itself" for the party.
8. South Carolina. Until the morning of publication, he was not prepared to include the state, but a brand-new New York Times poll shows Democrat Dr. Annie Andrews in a dead heat with Darline Graham, described in the column as the late senator's sister. Stephens calls it remarkable both that the race is close in such a deeply red state and that Graham is being considered for the Senate at all.

Nebraska and Florida, he adds, are not entirely out of play in a true "Blue Tsunami" scenario, though he cannot bring himself to predict victories there — and would be "delighted" to be proven wrong.

His bottom line: Democrats pick up six of the eight seriously contested seats, just as they did in 2006, for a working margin of 53-47 heading into 2027. Even at that strength, Democrats would remain short of the 60 votes generally needed to cut off debate and move most legislation past the Senate's legislative filibuster.

Governorships: a 16-year first

Republicans currently lead 26 states to 24 for Democrats. Stephens predicts that when all the votes are counted, Democrats will govern more states than Republicans for the first time in 16 years. Those offices carry weight beyond partisan bragging rights: governors can veto state legislation and, in many states, the congressional maps behind the gerrymandering Stephens describes, in addition to directing state agencies and budgets. He rates five governorships as true toss-ups:

• Ohio: Democrat Amy Acton will defeat Vivek Ramaswamy.
• Nevada: Democrat Aaron Ford will unseat incumbent Joe Lombardo.
• Wisconsin: Democrat David Crowley will defeat Tom Tiffany.
• Georgia: Keisha Lance Bottoms will defeat Rick Jackson.
• Alaska: Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins will defeat three other challengers.

Florida, Texas and Kansas, he writes, will be closer than expected, and one, two or all three could go Democratic on a historic night. His guess: many Texas Republicans will split their tickets, allowing Gov. Greg Abbott to survive while Paxton falls. He expects David Jolly to give Byron Donalds a real scare in Florida and Republican Ty Masterson to prevail in Kansas — though he "wouldn't bet a rusty nickel on it," adding that Kansas is "looking very squirrely for Republicans right now."

'This is not a drill'

Beyond the marquee races, Stephens predicts "mind-blowing" Democratic results in state-level contests nationwide, and calls Tuesday's elections among the most consequential — if not the most consequential — in American history, "because of what is on the line: Nothing less than the future of America as a Democracy."

He notes that he deliberately did not address what he describes as Trump's plans to undermine results he does not like, saying there will be ample time to examine that possibility if it comes to pass. The country, he argues, is already "in the middle of a full-blown national emergency," and the only thing anyone can control right now is their vote.

"So for now, make sure you have voted, and call as many friends and family who you still trust to make sure they are heading to the polls," he writes. "This is not a drill. Everything depends on it."

About the author

D. Earl Stephens is the author of "Toxic Tales: A Caustic Collection of Donald J. Trump's Very Important Letters" and an award-winning journalist who headed newsrooms and worked as a newspaper reporter for decades. His work is available on his Substack.

This article is a standardized English version of an opinion column originally published on Alternet.