S&P Global 美國製造業 PMI 7 月終值為 53.9，與 6 月的 53.9 持平，並略高於初值 53.8。作為擴散指數，50 以上代表擴張，50 以下代表收縮，因此 7 月明確處於成長區間。這項數據顯示製造業持續擴張，但細項指標顯示動能正在放緩。

調查重點

• 整體 PMI 維持在 53.9，顯示製造業持續但溫和擴張。
• 產出成長放緩至自 3 月以來最慢速度。
• 新訂單連續第三個月走弱。
• 受關稅與疲弱的全球需求影響，出口需求仍然低迷。
• 供應鏈中斷加劇，供應商延遲程度為四年來最嚴重之一，原因與中東相關的 disruptions 有關。
• 原物料成本與售價持續上升，但通膨壓力略有緩解。
• 招聘仍然低迷，而因材料短缺，未完成訂單量小幅上升。
• 由於對通膨、供應限制與銷售放緩的擔憂，商業信心降至 2025 年 10 月以來最低。

報告描繪出一個仍在擴張、但逐步失去動能的製造業部門。國內需求持續支撐成長，但持續的供應鏈中斷、偏高的成本、較弱的出口需求，以及下滑的商業信心，都顯示隨著產業進入下半年，其脆弱性正在升高。S&P Global PMI 與 Institute for Supply Management 的 ISM 製造業 PMI 同為市場密切關注的美國製造業指標，兩者合併提供工廠部門健康狀況的綜合觀察，供政策制定者與企業判斷更廣泛的經濟動能。

S&P Global Market Intelligence 首席商業經濟學家 Chris Williamson 表示：

“Although the headline PMI held steady in July, beneath the survey we see some warning signs about the future growth trajectory. Production rose at a markedly slower rate in July, linked to a third month of weakened growth of new business, in turn reflecting reduced inventory building after the especially strong precautionary stock accumulation reported in the second quarter. Further pressure came from increased supply chain delays, falling exports, and further pushback on high prices from customers. While input cost inflation moderated slightly, inflationary pressures remained elevated thanks principally to the combination of high energy prices and tariffs. In response, producers are either trying to raise selling prices to protect margins or boost productivity, hence July also saw another month of high factory gate price inflation and subdued job gains. In this environment, business optimism about growth prospects slipped to the lowest since last October, underscoring the downside risks to the near-term outlook.”

股市反應

儘管對未來成長前景出現審慎訊號，美國股市仍上漲。那斯達克約漲 1%，標普 500 漲 0.82%，道瓊工業平均指數漲 1.22%。領漲個股包括：

• Microsoft (MSFT): +5.40%
• Amazon (AMZN): +5.29%
• Salesforce (CRM): +4.90%
• Boeing (BA): +4.11%
• Sherwin-Williams (SHW): +3.58%