新聞宏觀經濟標普全球8月製造業PMI初值為53.2,低於預期的53.9

標普全球8月製造業PMI初值為53.2,低於預期的53.9

作者: ForexLive·

重點速覽

  • 8月製造業PMI初值降至53.2,低於前值與市場預期。
  • 服務業PMI初值升至56.8,綜合PMI升至56.0,雙雙優於預期。
  • 三項PMI讀值皆高於50,顯示美國商業活動持續擴張。
  • 標普全球表示,調查顯示第三季年化成長率接近3.0%,高於第二季的1.5%。
  • 比特幣上漲6.48%,帶動多檔加密貨幣相關股票走高,道瓊工業平均指數上漲0.71%。
標普全球8月製造業PMI初值為53.2,低於預期的53.9

上月為53.9。

8月製造業PMI初值為53.2,低於53.9的預期,也低於上月的53.9。

服務業PMI初值表現較佳,升至56.8,高於預期的54.0,也高於7月的54.6。綜合PMI初值則自先前的54.5升至56.0。

雖然製造業指數不及預期,但服務業與綜合指數都優於市場預估。三項指數均維持在50以上,代表活動處於擴張而非收縮。初值數據係根據約85%至90%的調查回覆彙編而成,因此是每月最早、最廣泛的美國商業狀況參考之一;8月最終數據通常會在9月初公布,時間上與ISM同月的製造業與服務業調查相近。

標普全球市場情報首席商業經濟學家Chris Williamson對報告表示:

“US business is booming, with firms reporting the fastest output growth for over four years so far in the third quarter as the expansion picked up further momentum in August. The survey data for the third quarter are currently pointing to annualized growth approaching 3.0%, up solidly from the 1.5% pace seen in the second quarter. Jobs growth has also shown a welcome revival in August, with employers gaining in confidence as concerns fade over the negative economic impacts of tariffs and the conflict in the Middle East. However, the latter in particular remains a key area of concern for businesses, especially via the impact on supply lines and energy prices. Supply delays were again reported in August to one of the greatest extents seen over the past four years, clearly constraining output in many companies. Price pressures, while fading, also remain elevated and prone to renewed upward pressures should energy prices rise again.

“Growth momentum has meanwhile shifted from manufacturing to services between the second and third quarters. As reduced safety stock building and supply delays dampen factory production growth, the service sector is now playing a key role in driving a sustained US expansion, underscoring a dependency on consumer spending and financial services growth.”

服務業比重上升對整體經濟尤具意義,因為服務業占美國民間部門產出的多數,而PMI調查——包括對招聘與投入成本的衡量——也被央行等機構廣泛視為觀察成長與通膨趨勢的早期前瞻指標。整體而言,儘管製造業讀值低於預期,指數仍穩健位於正值區間,而這次初值的附帶評論也較為正面。完整新聞稿可見於 S&P Global PMI。

市場反應

在固定收益市場,10年期美國公債殖利率上升1.8個基點至4.716%,30年期殖利率上升2.3個基點至5.260%。2年期殖利率也上升近3個基點至4.214%。

在美國股市指數中,道瓊工業平均指數上漲0.71%,領先主要指數,不過股價已明顯低於盤前水準。

道瓊早盤漲幅前五名為:

  • Goldman Sachs (GS): +2.36%,報$1,025.64
  • Cisco (CSCO): +1.95%,報$111.73
  • Merck (MRK): +1.58%,報$151.34
  • Caterpillar (CAT): +1.31%,報$826.07
  • Nike (NKE): +1.19%,報$40.69

Goldman Sachs領漲道瓊,漲幅超過2%,Cisco與Merck也提供了穩定支撐。Caterpillar與Nike位列漲幅前五名,兩者漲幅均超過1%。

比特幣上漲6.48%,帶動相關比特幣概念股走高。部分漲幅較大的個股如下:

  • Robinhood Markets (HOOD): +12.84%,報$107.31
  • Moderna (MRNA): +11.21%,報$148.26
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): +9.97%,報$189.53
  • Strategy (MSTR): +6.90%,報$120.14
  • Albemarle (ALB): +5.36%,報$141.38
  • Alcoa (AA): +5.13%,報$53.15
  • SoFi Technologies (SOFI): +4.72%,報$18.76
  • Ross Stores (ROST): +4.22%,報$238.65
  • Nebius (NBIS): +3.42%,報$227.63

隨著比特幣大幅上漲,與加密貨幣相關的股票成為今日主要漲幅股之一。