總統 Donald Trump 過去在商界因多次利用破產程序擺脫代價高昂的挫敗而建立了公眾形象，但 Dispatch 專欄作家 Nick Catoggio 主張，這種做法在伊朗對他並不適用。

Catoggio 寫道，隨著美國仍深陷伊朗局勢，而荷莫茲海峽危機持續，缺乏這樣一條退出路徑很可能令 Trump 感到挫折。該海峽是全球最重要的石油運輸咽喉之一，因此對當地航運的控制所牽涉的經濟與政治利害，超越了戰場本身。

「... [Y]ou might have reasonably assumed back in February that there was no scenario in which the United States would end up fighting on in Iran aimlessly. Either the regime would quickly be brought to its knees or Trump, finding himself stymied, would bug out. He’d take the bankruptcy option and leave others to clean up the mess, as he threatened to do when the agony in the Strait of Hormuz first began to confound him,” Catoggio said.

Catoggio 主張，如果局勢是在 2028 年而非 2026 年發展，即使海峽仍被關閉，Trump 仍會退出這場戰爭。

「With his presidency winding down, the prospect of Republicans being annihilated at the polls due to the knock-on effects of soaring oil prices wouldn’t have bothered him,” Catoggio said. “As long as he faced no consequences personally from having Iran in control of Hormuz, Trump would be content to leave someone else — his party and its new presidential nominee — holding the bag. That’s the whole point of declaring bankruptcy, no?”

「But it’s 2026,” he added. “He will face personal consequences if the strait doesn’t open, starting with having to spend his last two years in office fending off corruption investigations by a new Democratic-controlled Congress. Whatever’s left of his economic legacy after 18 months of tariffs and inflation will also crumble: Unlike in 2028, when he could have pawned off a Hormuz-driven recession on his successor, that misery will land in his own lap. And he knows it.”

依 Catoggio 的說法，這些後果已經開始浮現。他寫道，民調顯示美國人明白 Trump 的戰爭正是汽油價格大幅上漲的原因。他也引用 Fox News 的新數據指出，在不自認為 MAGA 的共和黨人之中，Trump 在伊朗議題上的支持度為 37-63。

「All of this is to say that the president would happily choose the bankruptcy option, I’m sure, if only the Iranians would offer it to him,” Catoggio said. “By signing last month’s humiliating peace agreement, he showed that he’s willing to accept the public embarrassment of admitting that a project he championed has failed, as bankruptcy requires. But bankruptcy is supposed to release him from the financial obligations created by that project, which in this case would mean oil commerce returning to prewar levels in the strait before November’s midterms. And the Iranians simply refuse to do that.”

Catoggio 寫道，在沒有破產選項可用的情況下，「這位破產之王現在所能做的，就是繼續把錢投入這個項目並期待最好的結果。」他補充說：「如果他的選擇是在顯得軟弱的同時遭受經濟毀滅，或是在顯得稍微強硬一些的同時遭受經濟毀滅，那為何不繼續轟炸？」

因此，Catoggio 表示，美國如今面臨一場危機，其選項似乎是大規模地面入侵、允許伊朗無限期維持他所稱對全球石油供應的扼制，或是在沒有明確效果的情況下持續轟炸。他的論點核心在於，政治問責、油價與軍事戰略在這場危機中已變得密不可分。

「Federal leadership has been completely bankrupted by hubris, stupidity, cowardice, and partisanship,” Catoggio said, also referring to Republicans who followed Trump into the situation. “Americans elected that bankruptcy, and this time they won’t be let off the hook.”