民調顯示支持度大幅下滑，MAGA 對川普伊朗戰爭的支持崩落，白宮面臨「政治上不可能」的局面
重點速覽
- •目前只有三分之一自認為 MAGA 的選民認為伊朗戰爭值得付出經濟代價，低於 5 月的超過半數，短短兩個月內下降 13 個百分點。
- •近五分之一 MAGA 選民表示，美國應不計成本結束戰爭；另有 37 percent 支持只有在費用不增加的情況下繼續介入。
- •一名接近白宮的消息人士稱，資深官員承認，由於美國公眾不會支持進一步升級，總統所期望的勝利在政治上不可能實現。
- •多數 MAGA 選民（57 percent）與非 MAGA 川普選民（63 percent）將川普總統上任以來汽油價格上漲歸因於伊朗衝突。
- •非 MAGA 的川普選民對戰爭展現出更深的懷疑，只有 21 percent 認為值得付出更高成本，28 percent 則反對不計代價繼續戰爭。
唐納德·川普總統最忠實選民對其伊朗戰爭的支持已明顯削弱，目前只有三分之一自認為 MAGA 的選民表示，這場衝突值得付出經濟代價——相較 5 月超過半數支持這位三軍統帥的做法，出現大幅下滑。這種支持流失格外引人注目，因為川普的「America First」聯盟部分建立在對海外軍事糾葛的懷疑之上，而這一立場在整個競選期間激發了他的 2024 年基本盤。
這些結果來自一項 Politico 民調，顯示短短兩個月內下降 13 個百分點；正如 Politico 報導，這顯示「總統最死忠的支持者開始與長期反對美國介入這場戰爭的大多數美國人看法一致。」該調查進一步發現，「37 percent of self-identified MAGA Trump voters say the U.S. should continue its involvement only if it doesn't increase costs, up from 29 percent who said the same in May ... Nearly 1 in 5 MAGA voters believe that the U.S. should end its war in Iran, regardless of the costs.」
據一名接近政府、並向 Politico 發言的消息人士稱，白宮內部的挫折感已達到高點。該消息人士表示：「I was told by very senior people that the president is now fully aware that the only way to the victory that he wants is completely politically impossible.」他並說：「The American people just will not support the kind of escalation it would take at this point. We've got more dead Americans and a politically impossible situation.」
非 MAGA 的川普選民表現出更深的懷疑。Politico 報導稱，「only 21 percent believing it is worth higher costs, while 28 percent say that the U.S. shouldn't continue the war regardless of costs.」民調也顯示，川普選民普遍願意將物價上漲歸因於這場衝突：「When asked why gas prices have increased since the president took office, the majority of respondents blamed the conflict, including 57 percent of MAGA voters and 63 percent of non-MAGA Trump voters.」這種連結反映了過去中東衝突中曾出現的模式：能源市場歷來會對區域不穩定和供應預期受擾作出反應。
川普的 2024 年支持者也「split on whether gas prices would have gone up more, less or the same under a Democratic president compared with now.」相同比例的川普選民——分別為 34 percent 和 35 percent——表示，如果是民主黨總統執政，價格會上漲更多，或大致上漲相同幅度。另有 20 percent 表示，他們認為在川普任內價格上漲更多。
The American Conservative 雜誌執行董事 Curt Mills 提出了直白評估：「This shows that as unpopular as the first round of war was from February to early summer, this second round is even more ridiculous. The American people quite simply do not get it, do not understand why we are in this war, and, yes, President Trump is king of the Republican Party. Yes, the president can do a lot and has a lot of latitude with his own supporters, but kings are not invulnerable from political reality.」
