黃金週三連續第三個交易日走高，亞洲時段交易上漲並守在每盎司4,100美元附近，因市場傳出即將達成重開荷姆茲海峽的協議，緩解了通膨疑慮，並降低短期內聯準會升息的機率。

此一走勢延續了本週稍早的漲幅，當時圍繞海峽的外交訊號持續轉強。報導稱，美國、伊朗與阿曼正接近一項臨時協議，目標是在週三宣布，以恢復美伊停火並重啟核談判。

黃金的上漲伴隨著利率預期的明顯變化。市場已將9月聯準會升息的隱含機率下修至約57%，低於前一日的約67%，原因是中東緊張局勢有望緩和，開始減少與高油價相關的部分通膨壓力。對短期緊縮的預期下降通常有利於黃金，因為黃金不孳息，持有機會成本下降時往往受惠。

投資人目前正聚焦於新一批美國勞動市場數據，包括民間就業數據與週五的非農就業報告，以進一步判斷聯準會的政策路徑。這些數據之所以重要，是因為它們有助於形塑市場對利率將維持在何種水準、以及會維持多久的預期，而這對黃金這類無孳息資產是關鍵背景。

除了即時地緣政治催化因素之外，黃金也持續受到更具結構性的需求支撐。中國的黃金掛鉤 ETF 持續吸引資金流入，機構投資人仍支持金價維持在備受關注的每盎司4,000美元上方，即使與荷姆茲局勢相關的即時風險溢價已開始消退。

央行買盤在2026年也持續成為黃金市場的重要特徵，全球各地的儲備管理機構在持續的地緣政治不確定性下繼續分散持有資產。例如，韓國銀行最近表示，計劃在13年來首次恢復購買黃金，並將地緣政治風險列為關鍵動機。這一舉措延續了近幾季央行以接近歷史高位速度買入黃金的更廣泛趨勢。

今年黃金表現波動劇烈但整體仍處高位。金價在1月一度飆升至每盎司5,500美元以上的歷史高點，之後大幅回落，並在6月下旬跌破每盎司4,000美元，隨後才逐步企穩並恢復。

即使近期地緣政治風險溢價回落，黃金仍是過去一年表現最強勁的主要資產之一，反映出央行持續需求、亞洲地區的散戶與機構買盤，以及市場對中東任何短期外交突破能否持續的疑慮。若報導中的荷姆茲協議最終獲得確認且得以維持，目前支撐黃金的部分避險買盤可能減弱，但來自央行與亞洲投資人的結構性需求，預料仍將為金價提供底部支撐。

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Earlier this week:

Deutsche Bank sees gold's correction as largely done, holds US$4600 Q4 target

Gold pushed higher for a third consecutive session as hopes for a Hormuz reopening deal reduced inflation risk and lowered the odds of a near-term Fed rate hike.

Summary:

Gold rose for a third consecutive day, trading higher in Asia and holding near $4,100 an ounce

The advance reflects easing inflation concerns tied to reports of an imminent US-Iran-Oman interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, reducing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates

Markets have trimmed the implied probability of a September Fed rate hike to around 57%, down from around 67% a day earlier

Gold-backed exchange-traded funds in China continued to attract inflows, with institutional investors maintaining support for bullion above the key $4,000 level

The advance follows a report from Axios that the US, Iran and Oman are nearing an interim deal targeting a Wednesday announcement to reopen the strait and restore the US-Iran ceasefire

Central bank buying has remained a persistent source of demand this year, with institutions including the Bank of Korea recently signalling a return to gold purchases, citing geopolitical risk as a motivating factor

Gold has traded volatile but broadly elevated through 2026, having earlier touched record highs above $5,500 an ounce in January before retreating

Gold climbed for a third consecutive session on Wednesday, trading higher in Asia and holding near $4,100 an ounce, as reports of an imminent deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased concerns about the inflation outlook and reduced the odds of a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate increase. The advance builds on gains seen earlier in the week as diplomatic signals around the strait have progressively strengthened, culminating in reports that the US, Iran and Oman are nearing an interim agreement targeting a Wednesday announcement to restore the US-Iran ceasefire and resume nuclear talks.

The precious metal's rally has coincided with a marked shift in interest rate expectations. Markets have trimmed the implied probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to around 57%, down from roughly 67% just a day earlier, as the prospect of easing Middle East tensions has begun to remove some of the inflationary pressure tied to elevated oil prices. Lower expectations for near-term tightening typically support gold, which does not pay interest and tends to benefit when the opportunity cost of holding it declines. Investors are now turning their attention to a fresh batch of US labour market data, including private payrolls figures and Friday's non-farm payrolls report, for further clues on the Fed's policy trajectory.

Beyond the immediate geopolitical catalyst, gold's advance is underpinned by more structural sources of demand. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds in China have continued to attract inflows, with institutional investors maintaining support for bullion above the closely watched $4,000 an ounce level even as some of the immediate risk premium tied to the Hormuz situation has started to unwind. Central bank buying has also remained a persistent feature of the gold market through 2026, with reserve managers around the world continuing to diversify holdings amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. The Bank of Korea, for instance, recently signalled plans to resume gold purchases for the first time in 13 years, citing geopolitical risk as a key motivating factor, a move that follows a broader trend of central banks buying gold at a near-record pace in recent quarters.

Gold's performance this year has been marked by significant volatility. The metal surged to record highs above $5,500 an ounce in January before retreating sharply, dipping below $4,000 an ounce in late June before stabilising and gradually recovering. Even with the recent pullback in geopolitical risk premium, gold remains among the strongest-performing major assets over the past year, reflecting a combination of persistent central bank demand, retail and institutional buying in Asia, and ongoing uncertainty over the durability of any near-term diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East. Should the reported Hormuz deal be confirmed and hold, some of the safe-haven bid currently supporting gold could fade, though the underlying structural demand from central banks and Asian investors is likely to continue providing a floor beneath prices.