距離 2026 年美國期中選舉只剩三個半月，總統 Donald Trump 正押注把民主黨人稱為「共產主義者」，以動員足夠選民，維持共和黨對國會的控制。然而，Trump 在一連串民調中仍持續呈現低迷支持率，一名 GOP 內部人士也告訴 Politico：「We're preparing for the bottom to fall out.」

民主黨策略師 Simon Rosenberg 是全國競選活動資深人士，曾任職於 Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee，並創立中間偏左倡議團體 NDN。他在 7 月下旬登上由 Greg Sargent 主持的 The New Republic「The Daily Blast」播客時，表達了謹慎樂觀的看法。Rosenberg 主張，Trump 的政治包袱仍在擴大，不過他與 Sargent 都承認，從現在到 11 月之間仍有許多不確定因素。從歷史上看，期中選舉週期往往不利於總統所屬政黨，而 Trump 的支持率走勢也被拿來與 2018 年相比；當年共和黨失去了 40 個眾議院席位。

Sargent 提到他所稱 Politico「really striking」的報導，並問 Rosenberg：「I'm just not ready to get that optimistic ... Are you there yet or not? And why?」

「No, I think we have a shot here, right?」Rosenberg 回答。「I mean, it's a year of opportunity for us. How well we seize it is really going to be in part up to us. They've created a situation where he's already fallen very far, much further than where he was in 2018 at this point. The national climate is plus seven or so, or above, for us, which means that the House should flip. We have polls showing Sherrod Brown up — independent polls showing Sherrod Brown up in Ohio, and Mary Peltola up in Alaska, and Josh Turek up in Iowa. I mean, these are states that Trump won by more than ten points.」

Rosenberg 與 Sargent 隨後檢視了本輪選舉中共和黨面臨的一系列政治逆風，從伊朗戰爭到經濟與移民議題。

Rosenberg 指出另一個他預期會在選舉日前削弱 GOP 立場的議題：醫療保險保費上漲。他說：「Both the private plans and the public health care plans — people are going to start getting notices of the premium increases,」他表示。「And what we're seeing in the data is that even private plans are going to see significant cost increases, and that 50 percent of businesses have said in surveys that they're going to pass those cost increases on to workers in their companies. And so, this is all going to happen in October, right before the election — that tens and tens of millions of people are going to be formally notified that their premiums are going to increase because of Donald Trump and the Republicans, right before the election.」醫療成本長期以來一直是選民最關切的民生荷包議題之一，而開放投保期通知的時點，可能會在選戰最後幾週放大這項議題。

Rosenberg 也引用新出現的數據指出，被移出 SNAP 福利的人數正以高於預期的速度增加。他說：「You've now got potentially tens of millions of people falling into greater food insecurity than was anticipated,」「All of these trend lines together add up to this basic reality, which is that Donald Trump and the Republicans have purposefully done extraordinary harm to the American people and to the United States itself in order to enrich themselves and their friends. And it is an extraordinary betrayal of the American people. People have figured it out.」

另一篇 New Republic 報導詳細描述了共和黨人私下對該黨邁向期中選舉的走勢日益感到憂慮。