比爾·蓋茲警告說，領導者、專家與社區對於他預期中的人工智慧顛覆準備不足，並主張目前並沒有真正的計畫來緩解進入 AI 時代的過渡。

這位 Microsoft 創辦人至今仍是全球最富有的人之一，但在持續出售與捐贈股票後，手中持有的 Microsoft 股份已相對不多。他在週二就此主題發表了一篇文章，表示他看不出政策制定者與機構已充分面對這項挑戰。

"I don’t see evidence that leaders, experts, and communities are confronting the challenges adequately. There is no plan to ease the entry into the AI era," he wrote.

蓋茲也反駁了常見的說法——新技術總會創造新工作——並表示這波 AI 浪潮不同於以往，因為它能以比過去技術變革更快的速度擴散，並在人們已經使用的裝置上進入工作場域。

"We have no experience with a technology that can be adopted quickly or that can think and move like a human. When the PC came along, it took twenty years to significantly change how we worked because the software had to be developed, the price had to come down, and people had to learn how to use the tools and incorporate them into their business processes. AI, on the other hand, runs on the devices we already have, and it uses natural language. We don’t have to adapt to it because it can adapt to us. It can watch the same training video that is used to train human workers and learn from existing data."

他表示，先前的技術轉型往往歷經數代，並以大蕭條時期失業率達到 25% 為例，提醒勞動市場受到的衝擊可能有多嚴重。

蓋茲警告，機器人與 AI 可能形成一種自我強化的循環：率先採用的公司會因成本優勢而迫使競爭對手跟進。如果既有企業動作不夠快，新創公司就會搶先。他補充說，雖然許多勞工最終可能轉往其他職位，但失去工作、接受再培訓與尋找新工作的過程將帶來重大衝擊。

"Robots and AI combined can create a vicious cycle. After one company adopts them and uses the savings to lower its prices, its competitors will feel immense pressure to do the same. If existing companies don’t adopt them, then start-ups will. Many people will shift to other jobs, but the turmoil of losing work, getting retrained, and finding other work will be significant. Market forces will make adoption go faster and faster and, unless we intervene, there will be fewer good jobs available and the benefits will accrue to a small group," he wrote.

他也表示，AI 所帶來的收益應更廣泛分享，而不應集中於少數群體，並呼籲立即討論如何減少失業。

"We have to think now about how to reduce job losses so that everyone can share in the prosperity that AI creates," Gates wrote.

除了就業之外，蓋茲還警告 AI 可能被用於武器、詐欺、假訊息與監控。他也表示，AI 陪伴功能可能有害，特別是對兒童，並可能削弱批判性思考。

這篇文章中最引人注目的想法之一，是他提出對 AI 課稅。

"I believe we should tax AI tokens and robots. Right now, if you’re an employer and you hire someone, you pay payroll taxes on their earnings. But if you buy a robot, you can usually write it off right away as a business expense. The tax system nudges you toward replacing people with machines," he wrote.

蓋茲認為，這樣的稅負可以放緩 AI 採用速度。他把自己的想法形容為激進，但表示在目前 AI 企業一方面要求大眾不要擔心、另一方面又尋求大型專案的重大支持之際，這些觀點值得納入考量。