唐纳德·特朗普总统在商业领域因多次利用破产程序摆脱代价高昂的挫折而形成了公众印象，但Dispatch专栏作家Nick Catoggio认为，这种做法在伊朗问题上并不适用。

Catoggio写道，由于美国仍卷入伊朗局势，霍尔木兹海峡危机仍在持续，缺乏这样一条退出路径很可能令特朗普感到沮丧。该海峡是全球最重要的石油运输咽喉之一，因此对那里航运的控制具有超越战场本身的经济和政治影响。

“... [Y]ou might have reasonably assumed back in February that there was no scenario in which the United States would end up fighting on in Iran aimlessly. Either the regime would quickly be brought to its knees or Trump, finding himself stymied, would bug out. He’d take the bankruptcy option and leave others to clean up the mess, as he threatened to do when the agony in the Strait of Hormuz first began to confound him,” Catoggio说。

Catoggio认为，如果当前局势发生在2028年而不是2026年，即使海峡关闭，特朗普仍会退出这场战争。

“With his presidency winding down, the prospect of Republicans being annihilated at the polls due to the knock-on effects of soaring oil prices wouldn’t have bothered him,” Catoggio说。“As long as he faced no consequences personally from having Iran in control of Hormuz, Trump would be content to leave someone else — his party and its new presidential nominee — holding the bag. That’s the whole point of declaring bankruptcy, no?”

“But it’s 2026,”他补充说。“He will face personal consequences if the strait doesn’t open, starting with having to spend his last two years in office fending off corruption investigations by a new Democratic-controlled Congress. Whatever’s left of his economic legacy after 18 months of tariffs and inflation will also crumble: Unlike in 2028, when he could have pawned off a Hormuz-driven recession on his successor, that misery will land in his own lap. And he knows it.”

据Catoggio称，这些后果已经开始显现。他写道，民调显示，美国人明白特朗普的战争是汽油价格大幅上涨的原因。他还援引Fox News的新数据称，在不认同自己是MAGA的共和党人中，特朗普在伊朗问题上的支持率为37-63。

“All of this is to say that the president would happily choose the bankruptcy option, I’m sure, if only the Iranians would offer it to him,” Catoggio说。“By signing last month’s humiliating peace agreement, he showed that he’s willing to accept the public embarrassment of admitting that a project he championed has failed, as bankruptcy requires. But bankruptcy is supposed to release him from the financial obligations created by that project, which in this case would mean oil commerce returning to prewar levels in the strait before November’s midterms. And the Iranians simply refuse to do that.”

Catoggio写道，在没有破产选项可用的情况下，“这位破产之王现在唯一能做的，就是继续向这个项目投入资金并寄望于最好的结果。”他补充说：“如果他的选择是在显得软弱的同时遭受经济毁灭，或是在显得稍微更强硬的同时遭受经济毁灭，那为什么不继续轰炸？”

因此，Catoggio表示，美国现在正面临一场危机，其选项似乎包括发动大规模地面入侵、允许伊朗无限期维持其所称的对全球石油供应的“扼喉式”控制，或继续进行没有明确效果的轰炸。他的论点基于这样一种看法：政治问责、油价和军事战略在这场危机中已变得密不可分。

“Federal leadership has been completely bankrupted by hubris, stupidity, cowardice, and partisanship,” Catoggio说，同时也指跟随特朗普进入这一局面的共和党人。“Americans elected that bankruptcy, and this time they won’t be let off the hook.”