随着货币贬值交易仍然活跃，黄金在技术面上已超卖

当黄金在1月触及 $5,500 高点时，市场在技术面上处于超买状态。此后局面已经逆转，黄金如今被形容为“严重”超卖。

在技术分析中，“超卖”是指某项资产下跌速度过快或跌幅过大，以至于动量指标显示卖压可能已经耗尽，短期反弹的可能性上升。200 日移动平均线（200 DMA）目前显示黄金市场处于超卖状态。通常，当金价跌至 200 DMA 的 90 percent 时，黄金会获得支撑。目前，金价远低于这一门槛，而 200 DMA 约为 $4,559。

在接受 Kitco News 采访时，Sprott 管理合伙人兼市场策略师 Paul Wong 指向 200 日移动平均线，并指出当前图表与此前几轮回调的形态极为相似。Sprott 是一家专注于贵金属和实物资产投资的公司。

"The percentage below the 200-day moving average, that's just a technical measure. Internally, I have five or six other measures that show minus two or minus three standard deviations oversold. I tend to think about things more in terms of probabilities: where are you on the distribution curve probabilities? Are you oversold? Give me a number. According to this measure, it's minus two standard deviations. According to this measure, it's minus two and a half, minus three, whatever. Add them all up, and what does it mean? It means that it's harder and harder to push down the price of gold. That's what the probability says."

Wong 强调，并非只有一项指标发出超卖信号。

"I've built up all these indicators over the years, so I fire them all up, and if all of them are saying minus two standard deviations or lower, then chances are it's oversold. It doesn't mean it's the low; it just means the bulk of the selling is probably done. And now you're switching to look for an entry point, or if you're a massive fund, you just start buying, and on down-dip days when it drops 1 percent or 2 percent on some news or whatever, you just buy a little bit more."

"What is it going to get to spark it back up? That's the whole thing."

黄金还在应对季节性疲弱，因为历史上年度低点通常出现在8月。Wong 表示，历史上的夏季底部可能被视为一个入场点。去年，黄金在8月下旬跌至约 $3,300，与美联储主席 Jerome Powell 在 Jackson Hole 的讲话时间相吻合；Jackson Hole 是央行备受关注的年度经济研讨会。此后，金价到10月反弹至约 $4,500。Wong 表示，他预计今年会出现类似的价格轨迹。

"Probably sometime in August, whether it's Jackson Hole or something sooner, or something blows up in the Middle East, or the bond market goes bonkers. There'll be some sort of event, a catalyst, that all of a sudden sparks gold up again."

货币贬值交易：债券是主战场

Wong 强调，尽管黄金近期出现回调并横盘交易，但推动金价创下纪录高位的货币贬值交易仍然稳固存在。黄金历来被视为价值储藏工具，因为与法定货币不同，政府或央行无法随意扩张其供应。债券收益率上升反映了这种压力。Wong 将当前局面形容为“情绪不佳的债券市场”，许多分析师认为，全球正处于长期债券熊市的早期阶段。

"Anywhere in the world, bond markets are not happy," Wong said.

各国政府继续以不断上升的速度举债。随着债务水平攀升，投资者最终可能会因为认为风险过高而拒绝继续放贷。Wong 指出，美国国债在过去一年中增加了约 $3.8 trillion，增幅接近 10 percent。

"Rates are rising. Your interest expense is now greater than your military. Those are deficit-busting numbers. You can see that there's absolutely zero desire from any party in the U.S. to address debt."

Wong 指出，债务问题远不止美国一国。在财政失衡之上，更广泛的“去全球化”趋势正在加剧债务增长。

"That means duplication of everything. You're reshoring everything; that's duplication of supply chains. It's duplication of demand for commodities across the board. You're building inventories because nothing is safe anymore. After this Iran war, everyone's going to be stockpiling energy. Storage is going to go up. You're going to build more [nuclear plants], you're going to build more solar, because those are renewables, and those are secure. Even metals, they're going to be stockpiling more. Meanwhile, governments around the world are changing. They're charging more, they're taxing more, they have more export controls. Everything is going to go up in price."

过去几年，美联储一直面临两难困境：它需要维持较高利率以对抗持续通胀，同时又需要降低利率以支持负债沉重的经济。它无法同时实现这两个目标。

Wong 承认这一困境，并表示在当前环境下，央行能做的事情很有限。

"What can the Fed do? Not a lot. They can talk a lot. They can try and give confidence, which is what I think Warsh accomplished in June — which sank gold markets — he came out quite forcefully saying sustainable inflation is not going to happen."

不过，Wong 强调债券市场压力正在上升，并称政策制定者最终将被迫作出“明确选择”。

"You're going to have to give up something. Either you lose control of the bond market — but you can't because you have to keep financing the debt — or you debase the currency. That's the heart of the debasement trade. It's still on, it's still there, and the pressure's still building."

Wong 澄清称，他看好黄金并不是因为黄金是某种流行的投资趋势。相反，他认为黄金注定会继续上涨，因为各国政府为了维持财政稳定，别无选择，只能继续让本币贬值。

"Inflation is rising, your debt and deficits are rising, yields are going to go up. You're moving closer and closer to the tipping point in terms of what the bond market will allow. You're going to get a rebellion in the bond market, and you've got to keep the bond market happy. And [currency debasement] is your only release valve. Really, that's the bottom line."