由 President Donald Trump 任命、上任仅数月的联邦储备委员会主席 Kevin Warsh，在央行最新决定维持利率不变后，正面临越来越多关于其公信力的质疑。

联邦公开市场委员会以 9 比 3 的投票结果决定维持政策利率不变。对于通常力求共识的委员会而言，这一反对票比例异常之大。随后，美国银行发布一份报告，称 Warsh 似乎对通胀过于掉以轻心，令投资者不安，而投资者如今预计通胀风险更高、且不确定性将持续更久。

“Fed Chair Warsh's press conference on the back of a 9-3 decision to hold the policy rate unchanged came across as dovish, and didn't bring any good or bad news, and it just added uncertainty,” the Bank of America message stated. “The market immediately priced it with a bear steepening, high inflation breakevens, and higher risk premia. A steeper curve, lower equities and a weaker dollar is the typical price action associated with credibility shocks faced by EM central banks.”

将其与新兴市场央行相比较颇具意味：大型货币当局出现公信力冲击的情况相对少见；当投资者开始怀疑一位美联储主席抑制通胀的决心时，较长期美国国债收益率往往会上升，因为持有人要求为通胀和政策不确定性获得更高补偿。

Bloomberg 的 Joe Weisenthal 在社交媒体上转发了该行的看法：https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/2084243057407320520

Employ America 执行董事 Skanda Amarnath 指出，Warsh 曾暗示 7 月可能加息，随后又退缩。“And now the committee will compensate with more hikes in 2026. Three hikes is the right base case for the rest of the year,” Amarnath said.

Warsh 的公信力也遭到 SGH Macro Advisors 首席美国经济学家 Tim Duy 的质疑。

密歇根大学经济学与公共政策教授 Justin Wolfers 在其播客中表示，Warsh 减少指引的策略适得其反。“Markets don't just listen to the Fed's actions. They listen to what the Fed says it believes. When that message gets unclear, uncertainty fills the gap,” Wolfers said. He added: “Less clarity created more uncertainty.” https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/2084077737552064742 https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/2084062733050232900

此外，Weisenthal 还提到了 Institute for Supply Management 最新制造业报告中的评论，其中两位受访者称当前环境比 COVID-19 pandemic 期间更糟。https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/2084242420833595482 https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/2084279259560820808

Primary Metals 行业的一位受访者表示：“No normalcy in sight in the world of metals,” “It makes me yearn for the coronavirus pandemic chaos, which was more manageable than whatever this is that we are in. At least business is better; however, the components of good business are not. Sharp pricing downturns in aluminum will make things more interesting, as supply levels will prevent those decreases from taking hold across the board. Getting customers to understand that is not always easy.”

Electrical Equipment, Appliances and Components 的一位代表也表示认同：“The pricing volatility and lead-time extensions in this market are arguably worse than the pandemic era. During COVID-19, we saw a surge of price hikes and inventory buy-ups, which caused constraints that eventually leveled out. We are seeing nothing but consistent upward trends for both pricing and lead times that show no signs of slowing down.” https://x.com/IrvingSwisher/status/2084246644053184810