比尔·盖茨警告称，领导者、专家和社区并没有为他预计将由人工智能带来的冲击做好充分准备，并认为并没有真正的计划来缓和进入 AI 时代的过渡。

这位微软创始人仍是全球最富有的人之一，但在持续出售和捐赠股票后，他如今持有的微软股份已相对不多。他于周二就这一主题发表了一篇文章，称他看不到政策制定者和机构正妥善应对这一挑战的迹象。

"I don’t see evidence that leaders, experts, and communities are confronting the challenges adequately. There is no plan to ease the entry into the AI era," he wrote.

盖茨也反驳了“新技术总会创造新工作”的常见说法，称这轮 AI 浪潮不同，因为它扩散的速度可能远快于以往的技术变革，而且会直接在人们已经在使用的设备上进入工作场景。

"We have no experience with a technology that can be adopted quickly or that can think and move like a human. When the PC came along, it took twenty years to significantly change how we worked because the software had to be developed, the price had to come down, and people had to learn how to use the tools and incorporate them into their business processes. AI, on the other hand, runs on the devices we already have, and it uses natural language. We don’t have to adapt to it because it can adapt to us. It can watch the same training video that is used to train human workers and learn from existing data."

他表示，早期的技术转型往往需要几代人的时间，并以大萧条时期失业率达到 25% 为例，提醒人们劳动市场受到的冲击可能有多严重。

盖茨警告说，机器人和 AI 可能形成一种自我强化的循环：率先采用这些技术的公司会获得成本优势，并迫使竞争对手跟进。如果现有企业不能足够快地行动，他说，初创企业就会抢先采用。他补充说，虽然许多工人最终会转向其他岗位，但失去工作、接受再培训以及寻找新工作的过程将会带来显著动荡。

"Robots and AI combined can create a vicious cycle. After one company adopts them and uses the savings to lower its prices, its competitors will feel immense pressure to do the same. If existing companies don’t adopt them, then start-ups will. Many people will shift to other jobs, but the turmoil of losing work, getting retrained, and finding other work will be significant. Market forces will make adoption go faster and faster and, unless we intervene, there will be fewer good jobs available and the benefits will accrue to a small group," he wrote.

他还表示，AI 带来的收益应当更广泛地共享，而不是集中在少数群体手中，并呼吁立即讨论如何减少失业。

"We have to think now about how to reduce job losses so that everyone can share in the prosperity that AI creates," Gates wrote.

除了就业问题之外，盖茨还警告 AI 可能在武器、欺诈、虚假信息和监控方面被滥用。他还表示，AI 陪伴功能可能带来伤害，尤其对儿童，并可能削弱批判性思维。

这篇文章中最引人注目的想法之一，是他提出对 AI 征税。

"I believe we should tax AI tokens and robots. Right now, if you’re an employer and you hire someone, you pay payroll taxes on their earnings. But if you buy a robot, you can usually write it off right away as a business expense. The tax system nudges you toward replacing people with machines," he wrote.

盖茨认为，这样的税收可能会放缓 AI 采用速度。他将自己的想法描述为激进，但表示值得认真考虑，尤其是在那些正要求公众不要担心、同时寻求大型项目重大支持的 AI 高管发出警告之时。