Bitcoin [$BTC] continues to face headwinds from restricted capital inflows, leaving it trading near half of its October 2025 all-time high. The discount reflects a broader correction phase that has kept risk appetite subdued across digital assets, with BTC struggling to attract the level of new demand needed to reclaim higher price ranges.

Chart analysis by Alphractal's Joao Wedson suggests that Bitcoin may remain subdued until it clears a key resistance structure. Wedson mapped the formation starting from Bitcoin's October 2025 peak, identifying a descending channel in which BTC has tested the upper resistance boundary three times over more than ten months. Each time, $BTC failed to produce a decisive breakout rally. Descending channels of this duration are closely watched by traders because a confirmed breakout typically signals a trend reversal, while repeated failures reinforce the prevailing downtrend.

Such formations typically turn bullish once a breakout gains sustained momentum — a move Bitcoin has yet to deliver. A strong breakout could push Bitcoin back toward the channel's origin near its October peak.

Can Bitcoin Break Key Resistance?

In its latest test of the resistance boundary, the odds of a successful breakout appeared to improve. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) formed a bullish crossover between Thursday and Friday, with its blue line moving above the orange signal line — a pattern that often precedes stronger upside momentum.

Simultaneously, the Accumulation/Distribution Line indicated buyers were dominating the market. Buying Volume recently reached its highest level since 26th May.

Together, these technical signals pointed to a higher probability of Bitcoin clearing resistance and sustaining a move higher. For traders, the key factor to monitor is whether buying volume persists in the sessions ahead, as failed breakouts in this channel have previously coincided with volume fading shortly after the resistance test.

On-Chain Indicators Signal Approaching Bottom

Several on-chain indicators also suggested Bitcoin's bottom may be near. AMBCrypto's analysis showed that Bitcoin recently exited the Supply in Profit band's "bottom discovery" zone — a region where BTC has historically traded prior to major rallies.

The short-term holder (STH) realized-profit signal further supported the case for a potential upside move. While no outcome was guaranteed, confidence in a market rebound appeared to be building.

CoinMarketCap's 24-hour sentiment reading stood at +2.06, offering little confirmation as overall sentiment remained broadly flat.

Summary

Bitcoin continues to test a resistance structure that has capped $BTC rallies for more than ten months. While bottom signals have strengthened across technical and on-chain metrics, flat market sentiment provides limited confirmation of a sustained recovery.