MANILA — The weak public interest in the impeachment trial of Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio may reflect a widespread perception among Filipinos that the Senate court is a political spectacle, far removed from everyday reality, say analysts.

A survey by Social Weather Stations (SWS), conducted from 21 to 27 September, found that about 42% of adult Filipinos were closely following the trial of Ms. Duterte — a level that is below the 54% who followed the trial of former Chief Justice Renato Tereso A. Corona and the 47% who tracked the case of former President Joseph "Erap" Ejercito Estrada. The Corona trial ended in May 2012 with a conviction by the Senate, while the Estrada trial was ended prematurely without a verdict after the prosecutors of the House of Representatives walked out in January 2001.

"When people already distrust the impeachment court and doubt the accusations, however, following the trial can feel like a lot of effort with little reward," said Rogelio Alicor L. Panao, professor of political science at the University of the Philippines Diliman (UPD), via e-mail. "So tuning out is not necessarily apathy. It can be a rational response to something that looks like a political spectacle."

Public skepticism about the court was already structural before the trial began, said Mr. Panao. Referring to a survey by Octa Research, conducted from 20 to 24 April, he noted that 81% of Filipinos were skeptical or withholding judgment on whether the senator-judges would decide on the case based on evidence and law rather than politics.

"If the House of Representatives, the Senate, or the government is seen as politically motivated, even a strong corruption case can be dismissed as political ammunition," he added.

The same SWS survey showed that only 28% of Filipinos had "much trust" that the Senate would make a fair decision on whether or not to convict Ms. Duterte. The net belief in the four impeachment articles against the Vice-President — measured during the survey period and before the court allowed the prosecutors of the House of Representatives to withdraw the articles other than the charge of unexplained wealth — was likewise weak, with scores ranging from -9 to -21.

Under the 1987 Constitution, a conviction in an impeachment case entails removal from office and disqualification from holding any office under the Republic — the legal consequences of the verdict the Senate court is weighing.

Jean S. Encinas-Franco, also professor of political science at UPD, stated that the distrust of the proceedings and the allegations may be related to the Vice-President's public narrative of being persecuted.

Mr. Panao added that Ms. Duterte's political brand — which emphasizes authenticity, toughness and an anti-elite image — has withstood corruption allegations because her supporters ask whether she is on their side, "not whether she is perfectly clean."

The Vice-President has repeatedly denounced the impeachment as a waste of time and resources, and as part of President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.'s attempts to undermine her presidential bid for 2028.

"The government should start working and stop politicking," Ms. Duterte said in a statement on 22 October. "The people are impoverished, hungry and angry."

The SWS data suggest that distrust is not uniform across society, said Mr. Panao: middle and upper income groups may view Ms. Duterte as a destabilizing political actor, while lower income groups may see the trial as a distraction from governance and daily survival.

Reginald V. Tongol, spokesperson for the Senate impeachment court, stated that the survey results serve as motivation for the court to earn public trust. In a statement, he said that the court will see the survey as a challenge to "demonstrate transparent, rules-based impartiality" to the skeptical and undecided segments of the public.

For Mr. Panao, procedural consistency is the first task in rebuilding trust, so the chamber must avoid visible changes that make it appear to be a moving target, such as the lower conviction threshold (the Constitution requires the votes of two-thirds of all Senate members for a conviction) and the sudden withdrawal of three of the four impeachment articles. A summary in plain language of each session, he said, could also reduce public confusion about the proceedings.

"It should publicly justify every evidentiary ruling," he added. "It should also be visibly protective of due process for both the prosecution and the defense, because fairness that is not seen is, politically, fairness that does not count."

Ultimately, said Ms. Encinas-Franco, building trust in the impeachment court means showing why the Vice-President may have betrayed public trust — and what that means for the daily lives of Filipinos. Now that the trial is continuing with the sole remaining charge of unexplained wealth, it remains to be seen whether the court will translate that commitment into the procedural consistency and visible fairness that the analysts describe.

Source: BusinessWorld, reporting by Francessca S. Abalos — Analysts see political spectacle behind weaker interest in VP Sara's trial