和平合意期待でペソが続伸
重要ポイント
- •ペソは火曜日、対ドルでP61.614と6.1センタボ上昇した。
- •原油価格の下落と米国・イラン間の緊張緩和期待が、ペソの回復を支えた。
- •BSPのレモロナ総裁は、50ベーシスポイントの利上げは可能だが、その確率は低いと述べた。
- •レモロナ総裁は、最近のペソ下落局面で中央銀行の介入は最小限だったとし、強いドルに対して通貨を防衛するのは無意味だと述べた。
- •ペソの前回の史上最安値は、原油高とドル高によるもので、輸入コストとインフレを押し上げ得る。
THE PESO strengthened further against the dollar on Tuesday as global oil prices continued to fall on hopes of an end to the Middle East conflict, while the Philippine central bank chief said more aggressive monetary action remains unlikely despite ongoing global market volatility.
The currency climbed by 6.1 centavos to close at P61.614 against the greenback from its P61.675 finish on Monday, based on data from the Bankers Association of the Philippines’ website.
The local unit opened Tuesday’s session slightly weaker at P61.70 per dollar. It touched a high of P61.60 and an intraday low of P61.76 against the greenback.
Dollars traded rose to $1.16 billion from $990.68 million previously.
“The peso appreciated on increasing prospects of a diplomatic resolution of tensions between the US and Iran after favorable pronouncements from both governments,” a trader said in an e-mail.
The peso also found support from the latest rate hike and currency intervention signals from Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Eli M. Remolona, Jr., Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. Chief Economist Michael L. Ricafort said in a Viber message.
Mr. Remolona said the central bank could consider a larger 50-basis-point (bp) move amid emerging threats to inflation, but the chance of such a move remains small.
He added that the peso’s recent slump to a new record low could stoke inflation by raising import costs, underscoring how currency swings can feed into prices in an economy that relies on imported fuel and other goods. Soaring oil prices amid the latest flareup in Middle East tensions last week dragged the peso to a fresh low of P61.847 against the greenback on Friday.
He noted, however, that the decline was also driven by the broad weakening of most currencies against the dollar due to a flight to safety following developments in the Gulf region.
Mr. Remolona said the BSP intervened minimally during the peso’s latest slide to smooth volatility, but added that defending the currency against a strong dollar would be futile and would only deplete reserves.
For Wednesday, the trader sees the peso moving between P61.45 and P61.70 per dollar, likely supported by lower global crude oil prices, while Mr. Ricafort expects it to trade from P61.55 to P61.75. — A.M.C. Sy