Ambev shares moved lower ahead of the company's closely watched second-quarter earnings release, as investors weighed signs of improving beer demand against the reality that volumes are still expected to remain below 2024 levels.

The brewer — controlled by Anheuser-Busch InBev, the world's largest beer company — is widely tracked as a bellwether for Brazilian consumer spending. Its local shares ended Wednesday at R$15.90, down 1.2% on the day, while its U.S.-listed ADRs also traded lower after the regular session. The decline came as analysts refined their expectations for the upcoming earnings report, with attention shifting away from simple volume growth and toward profitability, pricing power, and operating efficiency.

The market reaction reflected a growing view that Ambev's recovery story is becoming more nuanced. Brazilian beer demand has improved from the weak comparison base of 2025, but the rebound is not yet strong enough to fully restore volumes to the levels recorded two years earlier.

Recovery Still Below 2024

Analysts expect Brazilian beer volumes to rise between 5% and 8% year over year in the second quarter. On the surface, that would represent a solid recovery from last year's 8.9% decline. However, even the most optimistic forecasts imply that volumes would still remain about 1.6% below the second quarter of 2024.

That gap has become a key concern for investors. A recovery of only 5% would leave volumes roughly 4.4% below 2024 levels, suggesting that the business has not yet fully regained its pre-downturn momentum.

The figures highlight why traders are looking beyond headline growth rates. What matters now is not only whether volumes rise, but how much of the lost ground Ambev is actually recovering over a two-year period.

Margins Take Center Stage

With volume expectations relatively well understood, the focus has increasingly shifted to margins. Preliminary estimates point to second-quarter revenue between R$20.4 billion and R$21.1 billion, while EBITDA is projected in a range of R$6.3 billion to R$6.6 billion.

Several analysts believe Ambev could still deliver modest margin improvement despite the incomplete volume recovery. Pricing actions, a stronger contribution from premium beer brands, and disciplined cost management are expected to support profitability. The shift toward premiumization — a strategy global brewers have pursued across emerging markets — has been a recurring theme for Ambev, as higher-margin craft and specialty labels help cushion softer overall shipment volumes.

Some forecasts place the EBITDA margin above 31%, slightly ahead of last year's level. That has encouraged investors who believe the company's earnings quality may prove more important than the pace of shipment growth.

Analysts Remain Divided

Brokerage opinions remain mixed. Most firms continue to recommend holding the stock, while a smaller group maintains bullish views and a few remain bearish.

The split reflects uncertainty over how sustainable Ambev's margin improvements can be if consumer demand stays uneven. Brazil remains the company's most important market, but analysts are also watching weaker trends in Canada and other Latin American operations, which could offset part of the domestic strength.

Target prices vary widely, with some analysts seeing limited upside from current levels while others believe operational execution could justify a higher valuation over time.

For now, the market appears to be taking a cautious stance. Ambev is showing signs of recovery, but the fact that Brazilian beer volumes are still expected to trail 2024 levels suggests that the rebound is not yet complete. The upcoming earnings report will offer the first concrete read on whether pricing power and premiumization can sustainably compensate for the volume shortfall, or whether the two-year gap in demand will continue to weigh on sentiment.