El presidente Donald Trump construyó una reputación pública en los negocios por usar múltiples bancarrotas para salir de costosos reveses, pero ese enfoque no está disponible para él en Irán, argumentó el columnista de Dispatch Nick Catoggio.

Catoggio escribió que la ausencia de una vía de salida de ese tipo probablemente resulta frustrante para Trump, mientras Estados Unidos sigue enredado en Irán y continúa la crisis del estrecho de Ormuz. El estrecho es uno de los puntos de tránsito petrolero más importantes del mundo, por lo que el control del transporte marítimo allí tiene implicaciones económicas y políticas que van más allá del campo de batalla.

“... [Y]ou might have reasonably assumed back in February that there was no scenario in which the United States would end up fighting on in Iran aimlessly. Either the regime would quickly be brought to its knees or Trump, finding himself stymied, would bug out. He’d take the bankruptcy option and leave others to clean up the mess, as he threatened to do when the agony in the Strait of Hormuz first began to confound him,” dijo Catoggio.

Catoggio sostuvo que, si la situación se estuviera desarrollando en 2028 en lugar de 2026, Trump de todos modos se habría alejado de la guerra, incluso con el estrecho cerrado.

“With his presidency winding down, the prospect of Republicans being annihilated at the polls due to the knock-on effects of soaring oil prices wouldn’t have bothered him,” dijo Catoggio. “As long as he faced no consequences personally from having Iran in control of Hormuz, Trump would be content to leave someone else — his party and its new presidential nominee — holding the bag. That’s the whole point of declaring bankruptcy, no?”

“But it’s 2026,” agregó. “He will face personal consequences if the strait doesn’t open, starting with having to spend his last two years in office fending off corruption investigations by a new Democratic-controlled Congress. Whatever’s left of his economic legacy after 18 months of tariffs and inflation will also crumble: Unlike in 2028, when he could have pawned off a Hormuz-driven recession on his successor, that misery will land in his own lap. And he knows it.”

Según Catoggio, esas consecuencias ya han comenzado a aparecer. Escribió que las encuestas muestran que los estadounidenses entienden que la guerra de Trump es la razón por la que los precios de la gasolina han subido con fuerza. También citó nuevos datos de Fox News que muestran la aprobación de Trump sobre Irán en 37-63 entre republicanos que no se identifican como MAGA.

“All of this is to say that the president would happily choose the bankruptcy option, I’m sure, if only the Iranians would offer it to him,” dijo Catoggio. “By signing last month’s humiliating peace agreement, he showed that he’s willing to accept the public embarrassment of admitting that a project he championed has failed, as bankruptcy requires. But bankruptcy is supposed to release him from the financial obligations created by that project, which in this case would mean oil commerce returning to prewar levels in the strait before November’s midterms. And the Iranians simply refuse to do that.”

Catoggio escribió que, sin una opción de bancarrota disponible, “all the bankruptcy king can do now is continue to plow money into the project and hope for the best.” Añadió: “If his choice is between being ruined economically while looking weak and being ruined economically while looking somewhat tougher, why not keep bombing?”

Como resultado, Catoggio dijo que Estados Unidos enfrenta ahora una crisis en la que sus opciones parecen ser una gran invasión terrestre, permitir que Irán mantenga lo que describió como un control asfixiante sobre el suministro mundial de petróleo de manera indefinida, o continuar bombardeando sin un efecto claro. Su argumento se basa en la idea de que la rendición de cuentas política, los precios del petróleo y la estrategia militar se han vuelto inseparables en la crisis.

“Federal leadership has been completely bankrupted by hubris, stupidity, cowardice, and partisanship,” dijo Catoggio, refiriéndose también a los republicanos que siguieron a Trump en esta situación. “Americans elected that bankruptcy, and this time they won’t be let off the hook.”