El conservador Miles Taylor ocupó antes un cargo de alto nivel en la primera administración de Trump como jefe de gabinete en el Departamento de Seguridad Nacional de Estados Unidos (DHS). Más tarde se convirtió en un crítico abierto del presidente Donald Trump. En un artículo para el i Paper con sede en el Reino Unido, Taylor dice que cada vez más republicanos están ahora "breaking with Trump" y sostiene que el presidente, descrito como "paranoid", tiene motivos para creer que otros harán lo mismo.

"Donald Trump is going through the stages of grief over a growing defiance of him and his movement," escribe Taylor en el i Paper. "The possibility of Democrats retaking power and investigating him triggered the first phases: denial and anger. Last week, he entered the 'bargaining' phase, as evidenced by his son-in-law taking a secret meeting with a top House Democrat, evidently in an effort to find common ground. But I can tell you — from 10 years of watching Trump's movement, first inside his administration and then battling it from the outside at close quarters — that he's harboring a deeper worry than being investigated by liberals. He fears his fellow conservatives even more — because he knows we're the ones who beat him last time."

Taylor dice que Trump tiene motivos para recordar lo ocurrido en 2020, cuando la campaña estuvo marcada no solo por el mensaje demócrata, sino también por críticas públicas de antiguos aliados. "In the autumn of 2020, I helped organize a wave of former Trump administration officials to come out publicly against the president we'd served," escribe. "Our ranks included Cabinet officials, intelligence chiefs, and once-loyal White House staff who saw behind the curtain and couldn't accept the thought of Trump's reelection. CNN's Jake Tapper devoted an hour-long special to the historic defections, just weeks before Election Day."

Añade que Trump "still blames many of us for costing him" la elección presidencial de 2020, y señala que "his paranoia isn't entirely misplaced."

Según Taylor, los datos posteriores a la elección mostraron "a meaningful slice of Republican voters crossing over for Joe Biden, plenty of them for the first time in their lives, in the handful of states that decided the outcome." Dice que esos votantes no fueron persuadidos por los demócratas, sino influenciados por otros republicanos, un ejemplo de cómo las deserciones dentro de un partido pueden pesar más que las críticas externas en elecciones cerradas.

"Political scientists have a name for this phenomenon," escribe Taylor. "They call it a 'permission structure.' Most people don't change their vote because the other side made a great argument. They change it when somebody they already trust — someone who shares their tribe — tells them it's all right to flip."

Continúa: "A Democrat telling a lifelong Republican that Trump is unfit for office is pretty much just background noise. But a Republican who sat in the Trump White House and saw the corruption? That's permission. We built that structure in 2020, and it worked in a way no Democratic attack ad could."

Taylor señala a la exrepresentante Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Georgia), al expresentador de Fox News Tucker Carlson y al exfuncionario de contraterrorismo de la administración Trump Joe Kent como ejemplos de antiguos aliados de Trump que se han vuelto públicamente contra él. Dice que la lista de desertores probablemente seguirá creciendo, lo que subraya la posibilidad de que las críticas desde el propio entorno de Trump tengan más peso entre los votantes republicanos que los ataques de los demócratas.

"Trump built his movement on the idea that criticizing him is treason," escribe Taylor. "His former allies are busy proving that it isn't. And if they are successful, then Trump's last two stages of grief — depression and forced acceptance — will be scheduled for the first week of November."