USD/JPY Breaks Above Its 100-Day Moving Average and Pushes Higher
Key Takeaways
- •USD/JPY broke above its 100-day moving average at 159.994 and the 160.00 level, reaching a high of 160.15.
- •Hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell and rising U.S. yields, including a two-year yield near 4.34%, have supported the dollar's strength against the yen.
- •The advance also cleared the 50% retracement of the decline from the 40-year high at 159.599 and the August corrective high at 159.23.
- •Upside resistance is concentrated between 160.446 and 160.864, and a break above this cluster could open the door toward the 2026 high at 163.98.
- •Japanese authorities have previously intervened when yen weakness accelerated, making the multi-decade high area a zone policymakers watch closely.
The USD/JPY has extended its advance, breaking above its 100-day moving average at 159.994 and the natural resistance at 160.00. The high price has reached 160.15 as buyers maintain firm control.
The move has been supported by hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell and a sharp rise in U.S. yields. The two-year yield is up nearly 11 basis points at 4.34%, while the 10-year yield is higher by 5.2 basis points at 4.724%. Higher yields are helping to strengthen the dollar against the yen. Yield differentials have been a persistent driver of USD/JPY in recent years, as U.S. rates well above Japanese ones made the dollar more attractive to hold than the yen, a dynamic that shaped the pair's climb toward multi-decade highs.
On the technical side, today's advance also took the price above two other important resistance levels:
- The 50% retracement of the decline from the 40-year high of 163.98, at 159.599
- The August corrective high off the 2026 low, at 159.23
Breaking those levels—and now the 100-day moving average and 160.00—keeps the buyers firmly in control.
The next upside targets come at:
- 160.446: July 3 low
- 160.634: 61.8% retracement of the decline from 163.98
- 160.864: Corrective high following the initial intervention-led decline
That creates a concentrated resistance area between 160.446 and 160.864. A break above that cluster would further strengthen the bullish bias and open the door toward the 2026 high at 163.98. The reference to an intervention-led decline is notable: Japanese authorities have previously stepped into the currency market when yen weakness accelerated, so renewed approaches toward the multi-decade high area have historically been a zone policymakers watch closely.
For now, the 100-day moving average at 159.994 and the 160.00 level serve as the key short-term barometer. As long as the price stays above them, the buyers remain in control. A move back below, and the breakout would begin to lose some of its technical appeal. Beyond the immediate levels, further direction will depend on how U.S. yields evolve and whether Japanese officials comment on or respond to further yen movement.
