US forces struck two Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy missile launchers on Larak Island in Hormozgan province on Sunday, after the launchers were observed being prepared to fire rockets fitted with sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz, according to a US official cited by Axios.

Initial reports describe the action as a drone strike, and unconfirmed local sources put the toll at two killed and two injured. Iranian authorities have not officially confirmed the casualty figures, and Tehran has previously restricted domestic reporting on strike damage. Iran's Fars news agency separately reported that an explosion was heard near Larak Island on Sunday, with the cause unstated at the time of that report.

Earlier over the weekend, the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre reported an incident 12 nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman, in which a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting inbound in the Strait of Hormuz. UKMTO has continued to log attacks on shipping and rates the risk to vessels transiting Hormuz as severe.

Larak Island sits at the narrowest and most heavily militarized stretch of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that before the war carried roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil trade — the passage through which most Gulf crude exports reach global markets. A US official separately told the Jerusalem Post that the strike marked the first US action against Iran in several weeks, a lull that had coincided with intensifying diplomacy over the strait's reopening.

That diplomatic track has centred on Oman, which, along with Iran, has been working on a proposal for a temporary shipping route through Hormuz — an effort Qatar has publicly backed as a path back to broader negotiations. US Central Command commander Admiral Brad Cooper said last week that American forces had cleared sea mines from the strait's international shipping lanes and had overseen the passage of some 1,500 commercial vessels carrying 750 million barrels of crude since the blockade began, while also turning back or disabling vessels attempting to run it.

If confirmed, Sunday's strike suggests Iranian forces were attempting to reintroduce sea mines into the waterway even as the Oman-mediated route proposal was being floated, a move that would materially complicate any near-term reopening.

Any resumption of direct US strikes on Iranian territory near the strait revives the risk premium that has underpinned oil markets since the conflict began in February. Brent had been easing toward the mid-eighties on hopes that the Oman-brokered talks might open a temporary shipping corridor, so a strike aimed at preventing fresh mine-laying is likely to halt or reverse that slide. Traders will watch for confirmation of the target and casualty figures, as well as any response from Gulf states whose exports depend on the waterway. A verified attempt by Iranian forces to seed the strait with sea mines would itself be bullish for prices independent of the US response, since it threatens the narrow shipping lanes that carrier groups have spent months trying to keep clear. Freight and insurance costs for tankers transiting Hormuz remain elevated and are likely to stay that way while incidents of this kind continue.

The conflict, now six months old, has already cost the US military tens of billions of dollars and left shipping volumes through Hormuz at a fraction of pre-war levels. Further clarity on both the strike and Iran's mining intentions is likely to shape whether the current fragile diplomatic window stays open.

Source: Axios via InvestingLive