US Pipeline Exports to Mexico Hit 2026 Peak in August Before Seasonal Decline, Wood Mackenzie Says
Key Takeaways
- •US pipeline exports of natural gas to Mexico set a record monthly average of almost 7.9 Bcf/d in August, per Wood Mackenzie.
- •West Texas flows neared 2.3 Bcf/d on 13 August and South Texas crossed 5.4 Bcf/d on 26 August, both record single-day highs.
- •Natural gas burned for Mexican power generation reached an all-time monthly average above 5.8 Bcf/d in August.
- •Wood Mackenzie expects exports have reached their 2026 peak and will gradually decline with easing cooling loads, maintenance, and holiday demand softness.
- •Medium-term export growth is expected to continue as Mexico's combined-cycle power fleet expands.
US natural gas pipeline exports to Mexico (Mexports) are closing August at a record monthly average of almost 7.9 Bcf/d, according to Wood Mackenzie.
Incremental volumes from West Texas (WTX) and South Texas (STX) are the primary drivers behind this milestone. Both US regions posted all-time highs in monthly averages and single-day flows. On gas day 13 August, WTX approached 2.3 Bcf/d, while on 26 August, STX crossed the 5.4 Bcf/d mark.
Natural gas burns for power generation — the main demand factor behind Mexports' growth — also set a new all-time monthly average of more than 5.8 Bcf/d in August.
The August record underscores the extent to which Mexico relies on pipeline imports to fuel its power sector: the country draws the bulk of its natural gas supply from US pipelines crossing the border, making Mexport flows a key demand outlet for US producers, particularly from Texas basins.
Wood Mackenzie projects that Mexports have now reached their 2026 peak. Although volumes remain strong in early September, a downward push is likely to develop soon. From this point, Mexican gas and power markets are set to enter a gradual seasonal decline, driven by easing cooling loads, shoulder-season maintenance windows, and holiday-related demand softness. Market participants typically watch how quickly flows retreat from summer peaks as an early signal of shoulder-season dynamics in both Mexican power burn and US feedgas demand.
"August's record Mexport flows reflect both the structural growth of Mexico's gas-fired power sector and the intensity of this year's cooling season. With temperatures set to moderate and maintenance windows opening, we expect volumes to ease from here. The medium-term trajectory, however, remains upward as Mexico's combined-cycle fleet continues to expand," said Ricardo Falcón, Research Manager, Mexico Natural Gas at Wood Mackenzie.
Source: Wood Mackenzie
