The U.S. dollar is trading mostly higher at the start of the North American trading week, gaining against six of the seven major currencies. The Australian dollar is the lone exception, holding modestly firmer against the greenback.

U.S. stock futures point to a lower open, while Treasury yields are essentially unchanged. The next scheduled test comes from the U.S. services sector, with the final S&P Global services PMI due at 9:45 a.m. ET, followed by the more closely watched ISM services report at 10 a.m. ET.

Meanwhile, Middle East developments continue to shape the oil outlook. Improving supply is providing some relief, though threats to energy infrastructure remain a risk.

The dollar starts the week on firmer footing

The morning snapshot shows:

• NZDUSD: 0.5587, with the USD higher by 0.57%
• EURUSD: 1.1204, with the USD higher by 0.44%
• USDCHF: 0.8311, with the USD higher by 0.30%
• USDJPY: 158.21, with the USD higher by 0.24%
• GBPUSD: 1.3224, with the USD higher by 0.13%
• USDCAD: 1.4258, with the USD higher by 0.08%
• AUDUSD: 0.6958, with the USD lower by 0.07%

The New Zealand dollar is the weakest against the dollar, followed by the euro. The Australian dollar is holding up best, although its gain is small. Because commodities such as oil are priced in dollars, the greenback's direction also forms part of the backdrop for the energy supply story covered below.

Currency ranges heading into North American trading

Session ranges from the morning snapshot:

• EURUSD: 1.1162 to 1.1261 — 99 pips
• USDJPY: 157.45 to 158.28 — 83 pips
• GBPUSD: 1.3191 to 1.3250 — 59 pips
• USDCHF: 0.8278 to 0.8315 — 37 pips
• USDCAD: 1.4239 to 1.4293 — 54 pips
• AUDUSD: 0.6933 to 0.6966 — 33 pips
• NZDUSD: 0.5585 to 0.5620 — 35 pips

USDJPY is trading near its session high, while NZDUSD sits near its session low, both reflecting dollar strength into the North American session.

For traders, those extremes become reference points. A break beyond them needs follow-through to keep the move going, while a break that quickly fails gives the other side an opportunity to push back.

U.S. stock futures point lower

The latest futures figures imply:

• Dow industrial average: down 77 points
• S&P 500: down 6 points
• Nasdaq down 66 points

The declines are modest, leaving room for the services data to influence the opening tone.

Treasury are little changed

The Treasury snapshot shows:

• 2-year: 4.8205%, down 0.45 basis points
• 5-year: 5.0554%, up 0.04 basis points
• 10-year: 5.2771%, up 0.01 basis points
• 30-year: 5.6310%, up 0.10 basis points

There is little directional movement across the curve this morning. The 2-year yield is modestly lower, while longer maturities are essentially unchanged. That puts the focus on whether today's services report changes expectations for growth, inflation and the Fed's next decision. Yields also feed into currency markets, where traders weigh the rate differential between the U.S. and its major counterparts.

Middle East: improving supply meets continued infrastructure risks

According to InvestingLive's overnight coverage, oil edged lower as recovering Middle East exports and a G7 stock release countered Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi Aramco sites. Those attack claims should be distinguished from confirmed damage or production losses.

Separately, OPEC+ held November production targets steady at its Sunday meeting. InvestingLive reports that the group's seven core members are still producing roughly 5 million barrels per day below prewar levels because of the Iran war.

For traders, actual production and exports matter more than the announced quotas. Recovering shipments can ease the supply squeeze, while damage to energy infrastructure could reverse that improvement.

The inflation connection remains important. Sustained relief in energy costs would help the inflation outlook, while another supply disruption would complicate the job for central banks.

Overnight economic data: European services remain in expansion

The economic calendar showed a mixed set of European readings:

• Spain services PMI: 58.3 versus 57.1 expected and 57.8 previously
• Italy services PMI: 51.7 versus 54.6 expected and 55.2 previously
• France final services PMI: 51.2 versus 51.4 expected and the preliminary reading
• Germany final services PMI: 52.9, matching expectations and the preliminary reading
• Eurozone final services PMI: 53.0, matching expectations and the preliminary reading
• UK final services PMI: 52.1 versus 51.7 expected and the preliminary reading
• Eurozone Sentix investor confidence: 2.7 versus 4.5 expected and 5.1 previously
• Eurozone producer prices: up 1.9% month over month, matching expectations, versus 1.6% previously

Spain outperformed, while Italy disappointed. Services activity remains above the 50 expansion threshold across the listed economies, but the weaker Sentix reading points to softer investor confidence.

In Japan, consumer confidence came in at 35.4 versus 35.3 expected and 35.5 previously.

North American calendar: ISM services is the main event

Today's key releases are:

• 9:45 a.m. ET — S&P Global final services PMI: expected at 58.7 versus the preliminary reading of 58.7
• 10:00 a.m. ET — ISM services PMI: expected at 55.1 versus 55.4 previously

The ISM survey polls purchasing managers across U.S. service industries, and as with the European PMIs overnight, readings above 50 signal expansion. Services also account for the largest share of U.S. economic output, which is part of why the report draws main-event treatment on the calendar. The ISM headline is expected to ease slightly but remain comfortably above 50. However, traders need to look beyond that headline.

Employment will help assess hiring conditions. New orders will offer a view of demand. Prices paid will indicate whether businesses are still facing significant cost pressures.

A stronger headline accompanied by firm employment and elevated prices would carry a different message from growth driven by activity while hiring and price pressures soften. Read the details, then watch whether yields and the dollar confirm the initial reaction.

The technical focus

The technical perspective this morning centers on the three major currency pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD — with the bias, the risk-defining levels and the targets that would give either buyers or sellers more control.

The morning ranges provide an initial roadmap:

• EURUSD: trading at 1.1204 within a 1.1162–1.1261 range. Price has recovered from the low but remains lower on the day; the session extremes define the boundaries to watch.
• USDJPY: trading at 158.21, close to the 158.28 session high. Buyers have the stronger hand in the morning snapshot; getting above — and staying above — the high would extend that strength.
• GBPUSD: trading at 1.3224 within a 1.3191–1.3250 range. The pair is modestly lower but away from its low, giving traders less directional conviction than the USDJPY snapshot.

A session high or low is a reference point, not a complete trading setup. Moving averages, swing areas and retracement levels help define where traders can lean with risk defined and limited. The news can provide the shove. The price action tells us whether buyers or sellers can keep control.